Sunday, January 14, 2024

China

In China investment opportunities for most people are limited. The Chinese people are not comfortable with the stock market as it is seen as corrupt so they invest their savings in real estate. To get a home mortgage loan requires 20 to 30 percent down payment and monthly loan payments begin immediately even though the house is not yet completed. Local governments get their money by selling land which was given to them by the national government. The buyers of this land were primarily real estate developing firms. The whole economy revolved around the real estate business and the building got out of control. The local government sold the land to get operating capital, the real estate developers continued to build homes to get operating income and in time they ran out of land but not before they had built a billion more homes than were needed. Now homes and condos sit empty and the big real estate companies are going broke and cannot finish existing projects. This means that millions of ordinary citizens have lost their saving and the cannot afford to default because in China the government knows everyone's credit rating and if your credit is bad you cannot buy anything including basics like food. The government is now concerned that if millions of people lose their life savings and have no where to live they will revolt. In a communist society it is difficult to make small changes without opening the door to large changes much like happened in Russia when Gorbachev tried Perestroika. Within six years the Soviet Union collapsed. Since Xi Jinping is a total dictator he maintains control of the military so he can slap down any revolt by killing how ever many are needed to keep his power.

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