Economy

Politics and economics often conflict and 2024 will be a text book example. With low unemployment at 3.7% and inflation (3%) above the Fed target of 2% the Fed should raise rates but since this is an election year the Fed will be under pressure to lower rates. One concern is that the unemployment rates are low because 7 million able bodied men between ages 25 and 54 have dropped out of the work force. This is confirmed by the labor participation rate which remains low 62.5% down from 63.3 pre Covid. These men could be working as there are 8 million unfilled job openings today. As the industrial expansion grows many new high paying jobs will bring some of these men back into the work place. The five trillion in Covid stimulus has worked its way through the economy and will dampen consumer spending.