Tuesday, April 8, 2025

China

China has responded to Trumps tariffs with tariffs of their own. One interesting item on their agenda is rare earths. This will put pressure in the US to start mining their own rare earths, something that is long overdue. China will suffer in a trade war because in 2024 China exported $439 billion to the US while the US exported $144 billion to China. China is already suffering from sever economic problems. Their birth over the past 40 years has declined and they now have too many old people and not enough young to support them. They overbuilt their housing units to the point where the values of homes have declined and in China that is where most people invest. Wages have increase in China to the point where many companies are now moving to places like Thailand, Vietnam, Mexico and Indonesia. Bain & Company reported that 69% of surveyed companies planned to reduce or completely exit their business operations in China by 2024 While the US is self-sufficient in food and energy China must import 33% of its food, 40% of its natural gas and 71% of its crude oil. While the US is concerned about its 122% debt to GDP ratio, China is sitting at 375%.

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