Endless war

Turmp has put Europe in a quandary. They don’t have a central army but small armies in a dozen countries and no one country is in charge. The don’t have the military equipment nor the money to defend Ukraine against Russia so they hold meetings in the hopes of convincing America they are organizing to fight for Ukraine. They are not willing to sacrifice their social programs to build up defense, so their easy out, is to get the US back on track to aid Ukraine but Trump is not having it. Trump’s position is that he wants the war to end and will allow US private industry to invest in Ukraine, which means civilian Americans on the ground in Ukraine, which means that Russia will not attack for fear of starting a war with the US. Europe wants to continue the war but they want the US to lead the way with money and equipment. In other words, they are the globalists and they want to keep on with the old way of doing things. They want the US to give them protection and favorable trade deals. They haven’t figured out that those days are gone. Many oppose Trump’s plan but they have yet to come up with another plan. So far, their answer is to just continue the endless war.

K12

How have schools changed since 1950. In 1950 there were one million teachers in K-12 and the student/teacher ratio was 27. In addition, there were 200,000 non teacher employees. In 2022 there were 3.1 million teachers in K-12 and the student/teacher ratio was 15. Added to that were 4 million non-teacher employees. The population had doubled but the number of teachers tripled. The major difference is the number of non-teachers increased from 200,000 to four million. During this time the test scores declined and the racial gap increased. The US spends 6% of GDP on education which is in the top three in the world. In the 1950s, student test scores, particularly in math and science, were generally considered to be relatively high compared to later decades, with some data suggesting a peak in achievement around the mid-1950s. In spite of a lot of new technology designed to

Innovation

The US has the highest GDP per capita at $81,695. Europe is second at $60,350 US workers are considered highly productive due to a combination of factors including significant investment in technology and research and development (R&D), a culture of innovation and risk-taking, access to advanced capital equipment, a skilled workforce, and a business environment that encourages competition and adaptability, allowing them to produce more output per hour worked compared to many other countries. With the reshoring of manufacturing and the advances in new equipment along with AI the advantage that the US has will become greater. In 2023 the US spent $783 billion on R&D compared with $410 billion in Europe. Most new technology was invented in America -- from personal computers, lasers, mobile phones, video games, photocopiers, and even the internet.

Education

Senator Berney Sanders was on TV complaining that the rich people, like Elon Musk do not worry about public education because they send their children to private schools. In the 2021-2022 school years, about 9% of students were in private schools. This amounts to 4.7 million students. One part of this that is rarely mentioned is the number of teachers children who are in private schools. Public school teachers send their own children to private schools at a rate more than twice the national average–22 percent of public educators' children are in private schools compared to the national average of 10 percent. The department of education has once again come under attack. The department founded 45 years ago was an attempt to improve education and in particular to close the gap between White and Asian student’s vs Black and Hispanic. It has failed and there is a need to try a new approach. This is almost an act of desperation since most people realize that the problem starts in the home. Moving things back to the states will look like the government is taking action but it is not likely to have much of an effect on the test score gap. To talk about the home problems makes many people uncomfortable but until that happens there will be little progress made toward solving the problem. Most of the problems in schools are about discipline and discipline is learned in the home growing up. All too often, especially in minority homes there is no father.

Waste

Over the years congress has moved away from their oversight duties and allowed the bureaucrats to check on themselves. As if this weren’t bad enough the bureaucrats have joined forces with other parts of the economy. They have united with the universities, social media, Hollywood, Silicon Valley, the national press and much of the democratic party to help hide the distribution of government money. Now this cabal is faced with the uncomfortable scrutiny of DOGE. Slowly, day by day, new revelations of the misuse of government funds are being uncovered but so far most of the press is not revealing the waste. Fox News will daily expose some new bazar program but the rest of the media is only covering the loss of some benefit to some group. If DOGE is able to unravel the mess and the public is made aware, then the whole system will be in jeopardy. The key here is, will the public even know about this. The one thing DOGE has in its favor is Trump’s messages on Truth Social along with the bully pulpit.

Subsidies

Sunnova is the latest solar panel company to get into financial trouble. After receiving $3 billion from government, they are facing bankruptcy. Recall Solyndra that received $500 million and folded and First Solar who got $2 billion from the Investment Reduction Act and their stock rose to $300 last June and today it closed at $130. These companies cannot compete with Chinese solar panel companies but they keep getting subsidies. Investigations show that a lot of money was given back in the form of campaign contributions but much of the money is unaccounted for.

Cuts

The US has been protecting Europe since the founding of NATO in 1949. When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1990 this was no longer necessary and Trump let them know it was time for them to provide for their own defense. The result was something that should have happened 30 years ago, Europe has” New plans from the European Union to increase defense spending could potentially mobilize as much as 800 billion euros ($841 billion), European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said Tuesday.“Europe is ready to massively boost its defense spending,” she said in a statement. This is only in the planning stage but it is a recognition that it is time for Europe to take some action to be less dependent on the US. The Trump policy is that the world can get along without the US be responsible for the world order. It means bringing home military personnel, closing basis, cutting back payments to NATO, the UN and other organizations like the WTO and the WHO. This reduction will include domestic spending as each congressmen’s pet project will be cut. The press which is part of the establishment will point out everyone who suffers from any cut and put pressure on maintaining the old way of doing business. Since congress has proven unable to cut it will be left up to the voters.

Natural gas

Natural gas is the cleanest fossil fuels and the reason the US has reduced its CO2 emission to 1960 levels even though the population has increased from 180 million to 330 million. The US has enough natural gas to ship around the world to replace in many cases the burning of coal. This helps in the fight against climate change. Since 2020, US natural gas exports have increased significantly, especially in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG). The US has become the world's largest LNG exporter, surpassing Australia and Qatar. Yes, the United States is building several liquefied natural gas (LNG) export facilities, including Plaquemines, Corpus Christi Stage III, Golden Pass, Rio Grande, and Port Arthur In January 2024, President Biden temporarily halted new approvals for liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports. The pause was put in place to study the impact of LNG exports on the climate, economy, and national security. U.S. President Donald Trump has ended the moratorium on new liquefied natural gas export permits imposed by his predecessor Joe Biden in January 2024.

Wages price

Why tariffs? Consumers benefit from low prices from imported goods. If the US wants to make products at home, then the cost of labor will drive up the cost of goods. Improvements in productivity (new equipment and AI) in new US production facilities, along with lower transportation cost from shorter supply chains and lower energy cost (new small nuclear reactors) can offset some of the increased labor cost. New technology from AI can also reduce cost as well as lower energy cost. One way to force the issue is by using tariffs. If some foreign country controls the supply of TV sets and they cut off supply it is an inconvenience but if they control pharmaceuticals or computer chips it can be dangerous. Are the American people willing to pay a higher price to pay workers a higher wage? Recent experience says yes. In 2000 a McDonalds employee earned $6.25 per hour and a Big Mac cost $4.23. In 2022 the wages rose to $12.50 and the Big Mac cost $5.93. Labor costs represents about 30% of overall cost so this is a proportional increase. As reshoring grows, prices will rise and this will cause wage/price inflation. Depending on how long it takes for productivity to catch up, prices will continue to rise. This could be an issue in the upcoming midterms but there are no solutions except for time. The outsiders running for office will not need a solution just the problem.

Panama

Another example of Trump using financial and military solutions to political problems has emerged with the Panama Canal. First Trump threatens to retake the canal with force if necessary. This is followed up by an agreement between the US investor BlackRock to purchase the ports at both ends of the canal from a Chinese based company for $23 billion. The canal is once again under control of America without having to use any US government money or military

College

The cost for a four-year degree at the University of Minnesota is $125,000 and the average grad ends up with $20,000 in student loan debt. If that same person worked four years at McDonalds at $17 per hour, they would earn $134,000. The difference between the two people is paying out $145,000 or taking in $134,000 or $279,000 to start. The average humanities grad starts out at $50,000. The humanities include the academic study of philosophy, religion, history, language arts (literature, writing, oratory, rhetoric, poetry, etc.), the performing arts (theater, music, dance, etc.), and the visual arts (painting, sculpture, photography, filmmaking, etc.). Assuming the difference in salary of $17,000 ($50,000 - $34,000) holds, it will take the graduate 16 year to recoup. There are many other factors to be considered but this is one of them. For example: Fewer than half of students graduate from four-year colleges within four years. The six-year graduation rate is often used to measure how long it takes students to complete their degrees. In that case it would take 24 years to recoup the college cost.

A new world

During the cold war the world was bipolar in that the two major powers were the Soviet Union and the US. When the Soviets fell the world became unipolar with the US standing alone much as it was when WW 2 ended. After the end of the USSR in 1990 the Americans once again stood alone at the top but then came the end of globalization and today, we face a multipower world with the US, Russia, Europe and China all contending for power. It would be to the US advantage to help Europe get along with Russia and open free and fair trade with both. A strong Western alliance will offset the growing threat from China and help preserve peace through strength. This will return Russian gas and oil to Europe and save their economy while releasing the grain from Russia and Ukraine to help feed the people in sub-Sahara Africa. All of the mineral wealth of Russia and Ukraine can once again flow free while Europe starts the rebuilding of Ukraine. The US will then be free to work with Saudi Arabia and using the Abraham Accords, help to rebuild Gaza, using the money from the rich Arab oil countries, along with construction companies from Israel and labor from Palestine. A new Golden Age can be a possibility.

Defense

Trump has told Europe to start paying for more of their own defense since the US is no longer going to keep them safe. The result in just a few weeks was: EU chief proposes plan to ‘urgently’ increase defense spending by mobilizing around $840 billion This is a significant increase since: EU members spent 326 billion euros on defense in 2024 - about 1.9% of GDP, according to the EU's European Defense Agency. Keep in mind that the US spends 3.5% of its GDP on defense. Part of Trump’s plan is to cut defense spending and this will help.

Labor

The great American manufacturing economy that built the country up from the end of WW2 to the 1980’s was replaced by a combination of sending jobs overseas and growing the financial businesses. Over the past 40 years the money makers have been running the economy at the expense of the working people. Capital has become king and labor second to producing more capital. New phrases like mergers and acquisitions, leverage buy outs, hedge funds and too big to fail banks have taken control of the country but all that is about to change. The Trump revolution means that labor will once again assume its proper place as an equal to capital. As products are made and sold in America the wages paid to workers will be higher than those in foreign market and thus prices will rise along with inflation. Countering this will be the higher productivity from new and improved manufacturing processes and AI. Added to that will be the savings of shortened supply chains meaning lower transportation cost and lower energy cost by maximizing all energy sources including nuclear. The American worker will once again have a shot at the American dream.

Fat

People often say that changing the ship of state, is like turning around and air craft carrier and for the most part they are right. This is normally acceptable because people are usually uncomfortable with change. We like our old slippers. This is why Trump has caused so much turmoil. Not only is he moving faster than normal, he has a different approach, one that is not the way government usually operates. Every president since Kennedy has promised to cut the fat out of government and everyone applauds until it is their fat. The congress is responsible for spending, so they set about looking for fat. They form committees, hold meetings, research and write letters but in the end the debt keeps rising. Despite the gallant efforts of congress, the debt in 1960 was $300 billion and today it stands at $36 trillion which is a rise of 7.6% per year while inflation was half that at 3.6%. If congress had just held the increase to the inflation rate the debt would be a very reasonable $3 trillion. The people in power, want to handle the fat removal in the same way it has always been done, so that nothing will change. Trump will come under severe criticism from each group as their fat is trimmed and the press will broadcast every situation where cuts are made and the pressure will mount to go back to the old ways. Stations like Fox will air the savings and the rest of the media will cover those who lose their fat. Those who risk losing the most fat

Spending

The differences between the democrats and republicans can be seen by comparing the Trump presidency vs Biden’s. Biden passed the $2.2 trillion dollar Inflation Reduction Act which means government will spend all of this money on various projects mostly involving going green with $900 billion designated for things like solar panels and windmills. Biden past the $280 billion dollar CHIPS Act providing government funds for investments in computer technology. In the past 5 weeks Trump has secured $2 trillion in private money investments in things like high tech. When the government prints money to spend on these projects it causes inflation but when the private sector invests it provides growth. The big social media companies like Microsoft, Google, Amazon and Meta are investing billions in nuclear power to run their data centers. This is more private spending.

Capital

As the world slowly comes around to realizing that wind and solar are not the answer to climate change, nuclear looks better and better. One of the reasons rarely discussed is the upfront cost or what is called capital cost. As the baby boomers moved from the group with the highest earnings to retirement the available capital for investment declined rapidly. These people who ten years ago were investing for retirement are now putting their money into safe havens where it is no longer available for capital investment. This shortage of investment funds hurts the wind and solar industry because the major cost is upfront since the fuel is free. With nuclear the cost is spread over the lifetime of the project because most of the cost is fuel.

China

As observers watch the slow decline of the Chinese economy the questions arise, will Xi Jinping resort to military violence as happened in Tiananmen Square in 1989 and the answer is probably not. The general thinking is that as long as the dictator controls the military, he will remain in power but that may not be the case. In China’s case it could be much like what happened in South Korea in 1987. The people went on massive strikes and the economy came to a halt. Foreign investors pulled their money out and the IMF and World Bank froze assets. If this happens and Xi chooses to put down the people with force the military will see that when all collapses they will no longer be paid and they will revolt as happened in South Korea. After the collapse elections were held and democracy took hold and the economy boomed to where South Korea became a thriving country. The South Korean GDP went from $170 billion in 1987 to $1.7 trillion today, a tenfold increase in two generations. This is one option for China.

Negotiating

Trump diplomacy works from the standpoint of a businessman instead of a politician. Trump suggest a peace deal to end the Ukraine War and it blow up in the Oval Office. Zenlensky went home and met with European leaders who promptly met in London to take control of the negotiations. The US is now on the sidelines as once again Trump turns the problem over to the people most effected. If they decide they need US help then Trump will offer the same plan. He will meet with Putin and get an agreement of land for peace and no NATO membership. The peace keeping will be a large contingency of US workers in Ukraine mining rare earths. If the Europeans are not in agreement, they can handle things on their own. In either case once again the US will not be involved in a foreign war with money or troops.

Palestine

When Trump suggested that Gaza be turned into a Mediterranean Resort the general thinking was that he did not understand how that part of the world operated. Once again those who are critical of Trump did not appreciate his ability to make a deal. This week Arab countries including Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Qutar, the UAE and others are meeting to determine the fate of Palestine meaning Gaza and Hamas. They propose to put the Palestinian Authority in control and are willing to put up $53 billion to rebuild Gaza. The plan is in three steps. First to build temporary housing, second reconstruction and rehabilitation and third establishment of a new governing body. The group will meet again in Saudi Arabia to formulate plans to visit world capitals, including Washington DC, to gather support for their plan. This group accepted Trump’s challenge to come up with a better plan than his. If they are successful the next step is a Palestinian State as part of a two-state solution. This type of diplomacy is contrary to past US methods. The US always wanted to maintain control but Trump has turned the problem over to the Arabs. This means no US money, troops or equipment.

Europe

In contrast with Trumps rhetoric, he placed more sanctions on Russia than any president. During Trumps first term oil imports from Russia declined. Trump increased US oil production from 9 million barrels per day to 13 million and the price of oil dropped from $95 to $70. This hurt the Russia economy. During the Ukraine War the US sent billions to Ukraine in the form of free cash and military equipment while maintaining sanctions. The Europeans sent billions much in the form of loans that must be repaid. Europe purchase of natural gas and oil from Russia was more than the money sent to Ukraine to fight the war. The EU is spending more money on Russian fossil fuels than on financial aid to Ukraine, a report marking the third anniversary of the invasion has found. They are putting money into Putin’s pocket faster than they are taking money out of his pocket. Such is the way the war is going and while it will continue to go as Biden said, for as long as necessary. The bottom line is that they are financing Putin’s war machine with the purchases of oil and gas while they finance the Ukrainians with money and equipment. They are paying both sides to continue the war. It is much like saying we can’t let Putin win because he will take over Eastern Europe and we can’t let him lose because he will use nukes. Some strong leader must stand up and point out the absurdities of it all.

Jobs

The question is are American jobs coming back home and the answer is Yes, manufacturing jobs are coming back to the United States, a trend known as reshoring. More than 60% of US and European manufacturing companies plan to reshore some of their supply chains by 2025. Industries leading the effort are Electronics, Appliances, Computers, Chemicals, Medical equipment and Transportation. Trump being a businessman and not a politician promised to do this in 2016. Here is a speech that politician not businessman Obama gave in 2016. In June 2016, President Obama, in a town hall in Elkhart, IN, asserted that American manufacturing was merely a thing of the past. When asked by and audience member why blue-collar jobs continues to disappear, the 44th President admitted that good-paying jobs in America were moving overseas under his watch. Mr. Obama asserted that “some of those jobs of the past are just not going to come back”. “When somebody says, that he’s going to bring all those jobs back, well, how exactly are you going to do that? What are you going to do” Mr. Obama asked? There’s no answer to it…What magic wand to you have?” This, in a nut shell, is why the democrats lost the working people.

Healthcare

Canada’s relationship with the US is similar to the Europeans in that they both rely on the US military for their national defense and they both use the money they safe on defense to provide for national healthcare. In 2024-2025, Canada's military spending is projected to be 1.37% of its GDP. In 2023, the United States spent 3.4% of its GDP on its military In 2024, the U.S. trade deficit with Canada was $63.3 billion Because of this Canada wants to maintain the status quo while the US is looking for change. If the US reduced their defense spending from the present 3.4% to the 1.37% that Canada spends it would save the US government $500 billion dollars per year.

Ukraine

As the fervor over the Trump/Zenlensky spat subsides and reality checks back in, where does the world stand. Trump has clearly laid out the US positions saying that there will be no US military protection but the US will set up manufacturing in Ukraine, near the Donbas region and this will deter any Russian invasion for fear of killing American workers. Zenlensky’s position is to gather the forces of Europe and stand up against Putin. Trump is fine with that which puts the ball in Europe’s court and removes the US from the war. This means Europe will have to divert some of its social spending to defense spending, which is highly unpopular with people who have grown up with lots of benefits, because the US was paying for their defense. Just as some were saying that the democrats need a Joe Rogan, the Europeans need a Trump. From the European standpoint, as the dust settles, the plan that Trump proposes is looking better all the time. Trump will go to Putin and say that the West will not allow Ukraine to join NATO and he can keep Crimean which he took in 2014 and he can have the Russian speaking areas of Ukraine, mostly in the Donbas region in return for ending the war. This allows Putin to save face and go home with the victory of keeping NATO away from the borders of Russia. This will save Ukraine from many more years of destruction and loss of life and allow Europe to spend the money that would have gone to the war effort on rebuilding Ukraine.

Migrants

One of the major issues of the last election was the problem of illegal immigration. This leads to two questions. First how did this happen and second what can be done about it. There is an old adage that says the road to hell is paved with good intentions. Many people saw the immigrants as people who were trying to escape situations where their lives were in jeopardy and they only wanted the freedom and opportunity that they believed America had to offer. Compasionate Americans wanted to help and it became a classic case of the unexpected results of good intentions. It resulted in many thousands of young girls and women being molested as they travelled across the 2,000 miles of Mexican out back semi wilderness. Even after they arrived, they suffered abuse because of their vulnerable immigration status. The cartels made billions of dollars helping these unfortunate victims to illegally enter the US. Over 600,000 criminals entered the US and 75,000 young Americans died each year from fentanyl poisoning. An estimated 300,000 children have gone missing and many are in danger from traffickers. Thousands on illegals are put up in hotels while American citizens sleep on the streets. So, the second question is what can be done about it. The first step is to secure the border and let the world know that illegals are no longer welcome. Second the criminals should be rounded up and deported or put in prison. Third the missing children should be located and placed in safe and secure situations. Fourth those remaining should be given work permits so they can get off of public assistance and start paying into social security, Medicare in income tax. These work permits should be designed to lead to green cards and in time a path to citizenship. Meanwhile the problem of schools must be addressed. Migrant children should spend most of the school day in English second language classes. These can be taught by adults who are proficient in English. It will be four hours per day learning to speak, read and write English. Other school subjects are less important and available only as electives. During the last two years of high school students can learn about civics and basic finances.

Nuclear power

In the 1960’s early environmentalist began protesting against the use of nuclear energy. This was somewhat counter intuitive since their main concern was the carbon dioxide produced by burning fossil fuels and nuclear was carbon free. There had been no accidents and waste materials were stored on site. Groups like Green Peace convinced the people that nuclear accidents could happen and mining for uranium was harmful to the ground water. Not a single new reactor began construction between 1978 and 2013 and only one since then. More than 100 orders for new reactors, many already under construction were cancelled in the 70’s and 80’s bankrupting some companies. Not everyone agreed with Green Pease and early opposition emerged as a diverse alliance of ranchers, miners, loggers, hunters, off road vehicle drivers, oil workers and farmers. As CO2 emissions rose many felt that moving away from nuclear was a mistake and are reconsidering. The way the environmentalist won the battle was to add so many regulations under the guise of safety that the time to build and the increased cost killed the industry. The quickest and easiest way to revitalize the industry is to remove unneeded regulations. There is still opposition coming from environmental groups who are unaware of the new reactors that are safe and produce very little waste. Other opposition comes from the fossil fuel industry and the New Green Deal.

Ukraine

The pro Ukrainian protest across the country have been misnamed. They should be called anti Trump protest. These people are the same ones who said at the start of the war that we cannot let Putin win because he will take over Eastern Europe but we cannot let him lose because he will start WW 3. So, what is their solution? They have none. Like everything else the progressives do, their motivation is to be against everything Trump and thus the protest. Most experts agree that Ukraine will never get back Crimea or Donbas so the question is where will the demilitarized zone (DMZ) be located. It will be near the Donbas which is where the US can set up rare earth mining. As more Western companies start operations it will mean more Western workers and thus provide security for Ukraine against another Russian invasion. The US will provide the capital and the engineering needed to build and operate the mines and then share the profits with Ukraine. In this way Ukraine can repay America for the billions that were wasted fighting Russia. Meanwhile Western nations can begin rebuilding relationships with Russia and in the process save Europe from collapse.

Europe

Europe is making the same mistake that the US made prior to Trump. They are wedded to globalization where the US accepted their high tariffs and they expected the US to protect them from Russia. The fell in love with the idea that wind and solar could replace fossil fuels and they are now in economic decline because their price of energy is too high. They want the US to continue helping in the Ukraine War where they see no reasonable end to the conflict. They are setting up barriers to free speech and their immigrants are not assimilating. Their populations are aging and they are not having enough children. Their governments are overburdened with social programs that are no longer being financed with low defense spending. Polls show that the people are pessimistic about the future as the high cost of utilities hurts household budgets. They are depressed as they watch job loss and companies moving to the US to avoid high energy cost and to take advantage of the US consumer market. There salvation is to end the war and bring back cheap Russia gas, to forget about wind and solar and reopen their nuclear power plants, to establish free and fair trade with the US and to move away from China in regards to imports and exports. Much like the democrats here in the states, they know what must be done but they are unable to do it. It will take a strong leader to rise up and lead the way.

NYC

The strange case of New York politics. In 2021 Governor Andrew Cuomo was forced to resigned following allegations of sexual misconduct by 11 women. No criminal charges were filed. Cuomo is now being pushed by the democratic party to run against the current mayor of NY City Eric Adams, who is accused of accepting bribes. Adams ran afoul of President Biden, when he asked for federal aid to pay for illegal migrant and Biden had the Justice Department investigate him, for misuse of funds. It was Biden who told Cuomo to resign. How soon we forget when it is convenient. The MeToo women are silent as a man who only four years ago was force out of office for sexual harassment is now coming back and at the same time people like Al Sharpton are quietly watching a White man replacing a Black man with party approval. It is often said that party trumps country and, in this case, politics trumps morality and race.

China

The spectacular rise and fall of China. China was a backward country economically speaking for many years but in 1980 they opened the door to the free market while maintaining communist control of the government. The West thought that this would be the end of communism saying that once people experience economic freedom, political freedom would follow but this did not happen. The country experienced economic growth and in 2000 China was allowed into the WTO and the growth accelerated rapidly, making China the envy of the world. In 2013 Xi jinping took over and was worried that the private sector was getting too powerful, so he instituted various controls to bring back power to the central government. He removed any competitors and in 2018 set up the rules that allow him to be president for life. Then things took a turn for the worst as a combination of events collided. During the fast growth millions of people moved from the country to the city for better jobs. This meant fewer children would be born since having a large family on the farm helps but not so in the city. To further aggravate the problem, China introduced a one child policy in 1980 and during Covid many died, so Chinas population is way down, some say less than 900 million. Official government data still shows 1.4 billion. As the economy grew so did wages and so other countries started getting foreign investment that had previously gone to China. When Trump placed tariffs on China this caused further economic problems. Last week Xi declared that the government would ease some controls to allow the private sector to reinvigorate but some say it is too little too late. China’s demographics where there are too many old people and not enough young people has put them on a downward path from which they cannot recover. Chinas economy depends on exports and these are challenged by other countries like Vietnam and Indonesia.

Voters

Would FDR be reelected in today’s political world? Experts say probably not. He entered the White House in January of 1933 when the country was in the midst of the 1929 depression. In 1936 he was reelected and the country was still in the depression. In 1940 he was reelected with the country still in a deep recession. Finally in 1941 the war started and the country begin to grow rapidly and finally ended the 12 years of recession and depression. Today the voters are not so patient and would demand change after four years.

FDR

The fast-moving Trump administration is often compared to FDR’s famous first 100 days. The big difference is that FDR had a huge majority in congress with 313 seats vs 117. The senate was only 59 democrats in 1933 but that increased to 69 and then up to 76. A super majority in the senate is 60 so the democrats could pass any law and they did. Many of these laws were later declared unconstitutional by the Supreme Court. When that happened FDR tried to add 6 more justices to the court but that was too much for even the democratic controlled senate and it failed. FDR still won the long-term battle with the court for by the time he ended his presidency he had appointed eight of the nine justices. History has shown that one party control leads to the courts determining policy.

Afghanistan

It’s been four plus years since the US pulled out of Afghanistan and time for a review of what happened. Trump had proposed to withdraw but he was not reelected so Biden took over. The generals recommended that Biden remove the people, then the equipment and then the troops, leaving behind 2,500 troops and maintaining Bagram Air Base. Things were going slow and Biden saw an opportunity to end the occupation by the 20th anniversary of the war. This meant complete withdrawal by 9/11/21. Against the wishes of his generals, Biden pulled out the troops leaving the people and the equipment behind. The withdrawal culminated in the Abbey Gate terrorist attack on August 26, 2021, which killed 13 U.S. servicemembers, wounding another 45, and killed more than 170 Afghan civilians. The withdrawal concluded on August 30, 2021, when the last U.S. military aircraft left Afghanistan. This caused Biden’s approval polls to drop below 50% from which he never recovered. He wanted to go around the country giving speeches about how he ended a 20-year war but instead had to talk about the rapid removal of people, bringing back memories of the disastrous withdrawal of US troops from Saigon, something he said would not happen. Administration officials have stressed that the operation was “the largest noncombatant” evacuation in U.S. military history. More than 123,000 people were evacuated, including 79,000 since Aug. 14. The news reported this was the largest withdrawal since Dunkirk but Churchill said, “We must be very careful not to assign to this deliverance the attributes of a victory. Wars are not won by evacuations.” Today there are still Americans in Afghan who want to come home and Biden broke the US cardinal rule of leave no man behind.

Reshoring

As the US leads the world away from globalization, the trend toward reshoring continues to grow. Areas rapidly expanding include electrical equipment, appliances, computer and electronic products, chemicals, transportation equipment, and medical equipment and supplies are among the industries that are benefiting from reshoring. This promotes shorter supply chains which means lower transportation cost. Add to that lower energy cost due to increased energy production, the newest more efficient factories and increased productivity from AI and these factors could help offset the increased cost due to higher wages for American workers. In the beginning wages will rise faster than the production cost savings and the result will be inflation. As time passes productivity will out pace wage increases and inflation will moderate. The number of industries coming home will continue to expand especially in the medical drug area.

Ukraine

Trump has introduced the world into a new type of diplomacy where he combines economic power with military power to achieve a dominant negotiating position. Add to that his willingness to walk away leaves him with a strong hand. In his recent spat with Zelensky, the result was a win win for America. Either Zelensky accepts the fact that US workers mining rare earths will prevent a Russian invasion or the US will no longer provide aid. In either case it stops the US from participating in an endless war, which in the long run will destroy Ukraine. The only thing left for Zelensky is to convince Europe to provide him with war materials and that will still leave the US out of it. If Europe agrees they are committing to the concept that Putin can’t win or he will rebuild the old Soviet Union or he can’t lose because he will start WW 3, which leads to the inevitable conclusion that the war must go on and on. In a few days when all the dust settles Europe will recognize what happened and convince Zelensky to come back and accept Trumps proposal. When this happens, the US will provide the capital to build and operate a rare earth mining and processing operation where the profits are shared between the US and Ukraine. This will allow the US access to the needed rare earths and a way to recapture the money wasted on the war. European countries can then begin the process of rebuilding Ukraine instead of blowing up Ukraine. This will bring Russia back into the world market and once again supply Europe with natural gas and both Russia and Ukraine will once again begin shipments of grain.