Thursday, March 20, 2025

National debt

I have spoken of this before but it is worth repeating. Trump is the closest thing we can have to a third-party president in a two-party system. He first recreated the old republican party by sending the old established members out to pasture and then bringing in the working people. He is now in the process of forcing the democrats to reevaluate what they stand for. Both parties are trying to adjust to a new America and a new world. The old crowd cannot understand what is happening and they are desperately trying to hang on to the old ways but there is no going back. Trump only has four years and will not finish the job so the question will be, did he go far enough to get over the hump. By the midterms the victory at the border will be forgotten and the turmoil surrounding the effort to cut the fat will be in high gear on the nightly news and the democrats will probably retake the house. This will mean the end of cuts and a renewed emphasis on the angst toward Trump. In the meanwhile, other factors could change the voting. If the war ends and reshoring brings in enough jobs, people may be satisfied with the progress and keep the republicans in charge of the house, even though prices may not have come down much. That would allow the fat cutting to continue for at least two more years. By that time if wages have kept up with inflation, then the republicans may get a second chance at the White House, in which case some serious changes in government may be on the horizon. The program of bucking 75 years of increasing government debt will not be easy and things will likely fall back in to the old ways of doing business, using government money to buy votes. It will go down in history as a gallant try and await the next time some party has the will to try again. The last time it was tried was the Graham Rudman Act of 1985 so it may be another 40 years. The current debt to GDP ratio in the US is 132%. If this continues the ratio in 40 years will be 860% meaning the GDP will be $62 trillion and the debt will be $520 trillion. This is because in the past ten years the GDP has risen 2% per year while the debt has risen 7% per year.

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