Friday, October 22, 2021

Inflation and interest rate

People under age 50 don't remember the inflation of the late 1970's but it was severe, topping 13.5%. The last 40 years inflation has averaged about 2% which is the fed target. The blessing of low inflation has been low interest rates and now that will start to change. The government has been borrowing money at less than 2% for many years and that is about to end. With the debt at $28 trillion a one percent increase in interest rates means $280 billion in extra interest. In the early 1980's the prime rate rose to 21.5%. If that happens that means $6 trillion per year in interest. This was all brought to a halt when Reagan had the Fed decrease the money supply, sending the country into a deep recession that lasted about 16 months.

No comments:

Post a Comment