Crime

Since it is a fact that there are disproportional more Blacks in prison, equity demands that we either arrest more Whites or arrest fewer Blacks. Since the first option would be unconstitutional we are left with the second. Thus certain DA's around the country are refusing to prosecute Black criminals. This includes repeat offenders and this allows crime statistics to be distorted. In many cases felonies are reduced to misdemeanors and this also distorts the stats. This kind of justice puts innocent people at risk and people feel unsafe. It also has a detrimental effect on businesses are subjected to smash and grab thefts where the thieves are not prosecuted.

Privacy

In 1952 the National Security Agency (NSA) was created to collect information to protect the United States from enemies. They were not allowed to collect info on Americans but only on foreigners. In 2001 the Patriot Act was created to further enhance the collection of data but once again it was only on foreigners. So in 2010 to get around that limitation the US made an agreement with England that the British would collect information on Americans and then give this info to the NSA. This is why when Director of National Intelligence Brennen testified before congress and said the US was not collecting data on American citizens he was telling the truth. It was the British and they were passing the info along to the Americans. This is how our government operates. All of this information came to light when in 2013 when Edward Snowden released top secret documents to reporter Glen Greenwald. Government representatives always lie using national security as the excuse. National security along with misinformation and hate speech are the tools the government uses to attack free speech. When the government can access private information it can turn the constitution up side down. When a person says I am not doing anything wrong so why should I care if the government listens in. A better question is why should the government care. If our privacy is taken away without a reasonable suspicion of criminal activity, then the assumption is that everyone is potentially guilty until proven innocent.

Good times

There are three forces coming together in the future for the United States, two of them are almost certain and the third will depend on fate. The great industrial boom that will come with reshoring will be the first and assisting that will be artificial intelligence (AI) as the second and the third is hopefully a leader will appear who can unite the country. As new manufacturing facilities are constructed and brought on line these factories will be equipped with the latest technology and those new technologies will be bolstered by AI leading to high efficiency which leads to high productivity. High productivity will help slow inflation while this massive change takes place. The result will be high paying jobs and economic growth which in turn will lessen the tension between different groups. This is the opening for the new leader. Good economic times brings with them feelings of prosperity and all this is just waiting for the right person to come along and create, as Reagan said, a shinning light on a hill. The ideas surrounding the separation of people by identity will fade away and along with it people will once again unite as Americans. This is the future that is facing the young people of today. They were born at the right time and will experience opportunities at many levels.

SMR

The average person tends to believe that the experts know what they are doing but this is not always the case. Germany in the early 2000's made the move to go green. Their plan was to replace fossil fuels with wind and solar and simultaneously shut down their nuclear power plants. After they were well into this change they suddenly discovered that they don't have much sunshine and even less wind. Is the US going down the same path. Science shows that the best states for solar power are California, Texas, Arizona and Florida. The best place for wind power is the Midwest. The megalopolis from north of Boston to south of Washington DC is where 50 million people live and their wind and solar power must be brought in on the grid. This is over 1,200 miles solar and wind power. Even if they had sun and wind they have no space for wind and farms. The use of small modular reactors would be ideal for these crowded areas.

SMR

Small modular reactors (SMR) are sent from the manufacturing plant directly to the use site by semi truck. Since they are on site they do not require transmission lines and they do not put a strain on the grid. The standard power size is 100 megawatts and units are added as needed. A auto production plant producing 1,000 cars per day would need 300 megawatts (3 units) and these could be installed on site as the plant is being built. No transmission lines to the plant and no addition stress on the grid. They could be owned and operated by the manufacturer and the power is then sold to the user.

SMR

A one gigawatt power plant is the typical size for a nuclear power plant A one gigawatt nuclear power plant requires 600 acres A one gigawatt solar farm requires 6,000 acres of land A one gigawatt wind farm requires 120,000 acres of land A one gigawatt small modular reactor (SMR) requires 50 acres Small modular reactors are most efficiently built as 100 megawatt units and ten of these would be lined up to produce the one gigawatt. They are built on an assembly line and shipped on semi trucks to the use site. Since they operate without water and under normal pressure they do not need the super structure for safety and can be installed quickly with minimal cost.

Border

Last summer the house passed and immigration bill but it was shut down in the senate. The bill would Require employers to use e- verify to assure that all employees had social security cards End the asylum rules meaning you could no longer just cross the border and claim asylum Make it more difficult for unaccompanied minors to claim special juvenile status Fast-track deportations Provide details on sponsors to make sure they are properly identified No path to citizenship This year the senate passed a bill but it was shut down in the house. The bill would Provide $2.1 billion for a border wall $500 million for additional Border Patrol Agents $300 million for inspection technology End the practice of catch and release Would allow unaccompanied minors families to enter If more than 5,000 migrants show up at the border the government can shut down the border If the senate bill had included a remain in Mexico clause it would have been the Trump border rules and it had passed it wouldn't have needed the extra money for border patrol and technology because the number of migrants would have declined to pre Biden numbers.

Laws

Follow the science is a popular phrase these days but it has limitations. According to science, life begins at conception when the sperm meets the egg and then those living cells grow into a human being. The courts have ruled that the growing cells are living but they are not a person until after birth. Science says, Embryos are whole human beings, at the early stage of their maturation. The term 'embryo', similar to the terms 'infant' and 'adolescent', refers to a determinate and enduring organism at a particular stage of development. Just as you and I once were infants, so too you and I once were embryos. It is often said that we are a country of laws and when laws conflict with science, laws win.

Troops

French President Mccron says Macron says ‘nothing ruled out,’ including using Western troops, to stop Russia winning Ukraine war NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg instead dished clarity, telling the Associated Press on Tuesday there are “no plans for NATO combat troops on the ground in Ukraine.” Note that Stoltenberg did not say they would not send troops only that there are no plans. If the argument is that NATO cannot let Russia win or they will come after the next country then it is logical to use NATO troops to stop them.

Russia

Secretary of State Lloyd Austin said very clearly that the goal in Ukraine is to weaken Russia. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin insisted Monday that Russia was failing in its Ukraine incursion, with Austin explicitly saying that the US wants to see Russia’s military capabilities weakened. After two years of war, Russians defense industry is stronger than ever and their economy is booming because of the build up the military. Instead of weakening Russia the war has cause a recession in Europe and in particular in Germany which was the forth largest economy in the world behind the US, China and Japan. The cut off of cheap energy (oil and natural gas) by Russia to Europe has caused the cost of energy to rise rapidly and pushed Germany into a recession that is now more than a year old. Germany is on track for its first two-year recession since the early 2000s after its economy shrank in 2023 amid the impact of higher energy costs and weaker industrial demand. Russia overcame the sanctions by selling oil to China and India. When the war started Ukrainian grain exports were blocked by Russia for four months. Starting in July of 2022 an agreement was reached and and by July of 2023 over 1,000 shiploads of grain left Black Sea ports and 65% went to developing countries. 65% of the wheat exported through the Black Sea Grain Initiative reached developing countries. Over 725 000 tonnes of wheat left Ukrainian ports to Ethiopia, Yemen, Afghanistan, Sudan, Somalia, Kenya and Djibouti during the implementation of the initiative. These shipments prevented many people from going hungry and Russia could stop this at any time

UN

There are 193 member states in the United Nations and the bottom 100 of those have less than $10,000 per ca pita income which is $27 per day. The General Assembly meets September to December and resumes in January until all issues are addressed which is normally just before the next session begins. In other words they meet year around. These members stay in the best New York hotels, eat out at the finest restaurants and drive around in limos under diplomatic protection. All of this while their countrymen back home are living in poverty. The average salary is over $100,000 per year plus they have no expenses. What are these poor countries getting in return from these diplomats. There are occasions when the UN does something worth while but most of the time they are just a waste of money. If the UN were a business they would have filed bankruptcy many years ago. No one ever challenges the need for the UN, most just go along assuming the UN is a valuable asset for the world. To bring this to people attention let everyone know that the US contributes $12 billion dollars per year to the UN. This equates to $240 per year for every working family in the US. If people were asked how many would agree to send off a check for $240 each years without asking what they are getting for this money. The same questions could be posed regarding the WTO and the WHO.

Free speech

The supreme court is hearing arguments on whether states can tell social media which sites to keep and which to close down. It is hard to believe that this question ever got to the top court. The country recently witnessed a threat to the first amendment with Covid when information was shut off under the excuse that it was dangerous or misinformation. The answer to misinformation is more information not shutting down information. Let's hope the court sees through these schemes to challenge free speech.

Inflation

Young people ages 20 to 55 are the workers and the consumers especially young families. For many, when they reach age 55, the kids are grown and the house is paid for and they are at their peak earning years, which means they have more disposable income that at any time in their lives and they are investing that money in retirement accounts. These accounts are in the stock market and this is capital available for investment. When these people reach age 65 the money is pulled from stocks and put in government securities which means it is no longer available for investment which means the cost of capital is rising. The demographics of the US show a large number of retirees, the baby boomers, so capital cost will rise just at the time when the country is investing in infrastructure in reshoring. This means rising interest rates which means rising inflation. This is the price that is paid for rapid expansion of the manufacturing base. Immigrants are needed as workers and consumers and the illegals that are here must be given work permits and new legal immigrants should be brought into the country.

Immigrants

As the United States continues down the road of reshoring the need for both raw materials and workers becomes more apparent. This means mining and immigrants both of which can be done properly with the right guidance. Mining through reasonable regulations and workers with reasonable immigration policies. In selecting immigrants the need for certain skills should be at the forefront with the fluency in English a close second. The country will be in need of the ten million migrants who have already arrived as there will be many jobs that people without language skills can still perform but there will also be a need for people with other skills. The US should be gearing up to bring in an additional two million immigrants each year over the next 20 years. These should be legal immigrants with the proper skills.

Economy

Trump was the first president to recognize the harm that globalization had done to the blue collar workers in America and by extension in Europe. He declared war on global trade by putting large import taxes on China and steel and aluminum on all countries. The foundation of his Make America Great Again was based on bringing jobs home. Biden continued the process with his America first project and continued the import taxes. Then Biden declared war on the World Trade Organization (WTO) by signing the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) which had very little to do with inflation and a lot to do with offering tax incentives to anyone who chose to build in America. The European governments were furious saying this was against the rules of the WTO and there are right. When the WTO began in 1995 it was the catalyst needed to jump start the Chinese economy and now the beginning of the end of the WTO is the jump start for the US economy. This growth along with the accompanying inflation will continue regardless of who is president.

Ukraine

If you watch the news including the main networks NBC, CBS and ABC along with cable news Fox, MSNBC and CNN plus the major newspapers like the NY Times, Washington Post and WSJ you will find they are pretty much in agreement that the West must stop Russia in Ukraine to prevent Russia from advancing into other countries. Even searching the Internet you have to dig deep to find other opinions. Even the pro West stories have tell tale signs like saying "Russia's unprovoked invasion of Ukraine" have a strong bias. Looking further into the story it is easy to find 15 years of provocation. This can be seen in school where a smart witty student with a quick tongue keeps putting down another student who is not as quick. This goes on for a long period of time and one day the smart aleck gets a punch in the mouth and the other kid is sent to the principal's office because he started the fight. When all the news people are on the same side it is time to get suspicious and look further into the issue. At least it requires debate on both sides.

Victim

A college student was out jogging and she was attacked and murdered and the suspect arrested is Jose Ibarra an illegal immigrant from Venezuela. The interesting thing about the reporting of this incident is how many suggested that females should not be jogging alone. To some this seems like blaming the victim. Recall back in the 50's when Brigitte Bardot came out in a mini skirt and soon it became a fad. There was an incident shortly after when a young woman wearing a mini was accosted and some said she should have been more careful which is a roundabout way of blaming the victim. This caused a backlash in the press saying she had every right to feel safe wearing the mini. That was back in the time when politically correct speech was not at the forefront of the news. Today to blame the victim should be vigorously attacked but it is pretty quiet. While it is unfair to blame the victim people have a responsibility to act sensibly. If a man wearing a $2,000 suit is mugged in a dangerous part of town at 2 in the morning it is not unreasonable to suggest that he should have been more careful. This does not excuse the mugger but it does point out why people have to use common sense. It is suggested that one of the reasons why there is not that much backlash in the Ibarra case is that the attacker was part of the oppressed class and the victim was in the oppressor class.

Unity

The bureaucracy maintains its power and grows in strength by dividing the country along party and ideological lines. There are two ways to fight against this concentration of power. The first is to have elected officials who are brave enough to stand up to power. This can be dangerous because the government, over the years, has collected a lot of dirt on people who have been in politics for a while. This means they are vulnerable to personal attacks which can ruin their careers. It takes an outsider to start the ball rolling but the establishment always feels threatened by outsiders. A second way is to have a strong leader who can unite the people in both parties to rise against the insiders. This person could use the power of the vote to expose the elites and weaken their hold on the system. It would be us against them. To quote the famous philosopher Pogo who said, we have met the enemy and they is us. It would be ironic that a swamp creature could conquer the swamp. It would be a battle of the people against the press, big business, big labor, social media, Silicon Valley and Hollywood but there is an opening with the onset of podcast. This is where individuals can reach millions of voters without using TV. Podcasts show many sides of each issue and when the low-information voters gain knowledge they can challenge the status quo in a significant way. There are 3.2 million podcasts with 500 million viewers and they are growing rapidly. According to the latest available data, there are 504.9 million worldwide podcast listeners. That equates to 23.5% of all internet users. The number of people who listen to podcasts has increased by over 40 million in the last year.Jan 29, 2024 This is an ability to mass communicate that has only been available in recent times. Perhaps it is the means the voters need to get passed the biased views of the elites. Beware of any proposals by these elites to limit podcasts using deception-type excuses like disin

Real world

In the real world is a phrase often used to distinguish between academia and business. It is like physics class where you conduct experiments using friction less planes. It makes the experiment run more smoothly and efficiently but it doesn't work when you build it outside of the lab. Another example of the real world dilemma is the difference between someone who works for the government verses someone who works for business. Bureaucrats have never had to make a payroll so they often see only one side of a situation. They never spend less than their budget because if they do next year their budget will be cut. They have no incentive to reduce staff and cut cost. Their idea of success is to increase the size of their group along with an increase in money and power. While a bureaucrat looks to increase power the businessman looks to increase money. Most businessmen are willing to postpone their accumulation of money to a later date preferring to reinvest for a long term goal of money. Many small businessmen never really get around to enjoying their money because the thrill of building up the company is more satisfying that just spending money. Even very wealthy businessmen will buy lots of toys but the still spend most of their time and effort making more money. The great thing about this is that they are creating jobs something the bureaucrat don't think much about. People like Elon Musk don't spend their time floating around on their yachts. They are working hard to create and build.

China

Disparate times require disparate measures is an ominous phrase that no one wants to hear but is becoming increasing used to describe China. China was far an away the greatest beneficiary of globalization. The country is totally dependent on trade both imports and exports. China is the world's biggest importer of food products like meat, dairy, soybeans and corn. China is the largest importer of energy products like oil and natural gas. Any disruption in the supply chains of food or energy would be a serious problem for China. Meanwhile they are running out of working age people, which means the burden of the elderly will cause problems for a country, whose people have a great reverence for parents and grand parents. This was aggravated by the millions of elderly who died from Covid. China has over built in real estate and now has an estimate one billion unoccupied houses and town homes many of which are only partially completed. Many people have invested in these homes and the real estate developers are bankrupt and cannot finish construction. China's Belt and Road initiative which was to build infrastructure projects around the world has left many countries with partially completed projects and wasted over one trillion dollars. As discontent rises within the general population the government may be forced to take military action against Taiwan in order to distract the people from problems at home. A big push in defense spending will fire up the economy and therein lies the disparate measure.

Fight

The best analogy to explain the war in Ukraine is a championship boxing match that goes 15 rounds with no declared winner and both boxes stagger to their respective corners collapse on their stools and wonder why what just happened. The only winners are the fight promoters

Russia

The current thinking about Ukraine suggests that the war will carry on for a few more years at which point both countries will collapse from within. Russia at this point has a shortage of working age people especially engineers who could rebuild the oil fields. Russian higher education has suffered greatly since the fall of the Soviet Union. It was the United States and British engineers who built the oil fields. The oil wells in Russia are in areas called frozen tundra which means if they stop pumping the lines below ground freeze and pipes break and it would take many years to get things going again. This would remove oil production from the market. In addition Russia is the largest exporter of natural gas and this would put pressure on prices. The exports of grain from both Russia and Ukraine would be interrupted and this would cause severe hunger in many parts of the world in particular Africa. Perhaps it is time for the UN to consider the long term detrimental effects of continuing this war and move toward a settlement. There is more at stake than just defeating the Russians. What happens after that. Too often experts forget about what happens after the wars. Is it time to wake up to the fact that there are no winners in this war and plenty of losers.

Disparate

The U.S. Congress has incorporated disparate impact concepts in antidiscrimination laws, including statutes dealing with civil rights, education, housing, and employment. Example of disparate treatment: providing higher pay to men than women for performing the same job (intentional discrimination) Example of disparate impact: hiring more men than women as construction workers as a result of physical height or strength (unintentional discrimination) Equity is the key word in today's society where the push to rid the country of any type of discrimination is front and center. The government uses disparate impact or disparate outcome to determine if any discrimination is present. In layman's terms the government looks at a particular situation and if there is a disparate outcome there must be racism. If 30% of those in prison are Black and the general population is 13% Black that is a disparate outcome and therefore racist. If 30% of students at Harvard are Asian American and this group is only 7% of the population this represents a disparate outcome and must be racism. If women represent 53% of the population and 25% in congress this is disparate outcome and thus is racist. To completely show the ridiculousness of this concept consider that the NBA has 72% Black players while the general population of Blacks is 13%.

Houses

There is a housing shortage in the US and Europe. The government says that private investors say they will finance new homes but that is not true. These asset managers are making huge profits by buying existing homes and renting them out. They can get a five percent return plus appreciation on these types of investment. The greater the housing shortage the higher the rents so the last thing these investors want to do is build new homes

Iran

When Trump came into office Iran was producing over 4 million barrels of oil per day. Trump said to forget about any nuclear treaty and imposed sanctions on Iran. Oil production dropped to under 3 million barrels per day MAY 2018 The United States under Donald Trump's presidency unilaterally withdraws from the 2015 deal and re-imposes sanctions, aiming to cut Iran's oil sales to zero. When Biden came in he removed the sanctions in order to try and start negotiations on the nuclear treaty. Iran’s oil production capacity has returned to the same level as prior to the reimposition of sanctions in 2018, when the US unilaterally withdrew from a nuclear deal, a top official said. Some of the money from that additional one million barrels per day was sent to Iranian proxies in Hamas and the Houthis in Yeman.

Ukraine

I can understand why people under age 50 do not see the Ukraine situation as long term conflict. These people were not around during the Vietnam days. Older people remember how the government lied to them and how it took ten years before the people finally revolted and brought and end to the conflict. It was so bad that Johnson chose not to run for another term. Like Yogi says, it deja vu all over again. It is time to look at Ukraine with an open mind. What is the goal. Some say they don't want Russia to win because they will then attack another country and continue down that road until they have recreated the old Soviet Union under the new name of mother Russia. Some say they don't want Russia to lose since they will resort to nuclear weapons to regain control. That leaves only one alternative and that is just continue the war until there is nothing left of Ukraine. The hope is that the Russian people will get upset after some period of time and rise up in an attempt to get rid of Putin but there is no guarantee that his replacement would have different policies. Putin is 71 and so far as anyone knows in good health. He could go for at least another ten years. This war could have been prevented if the West would have agreed to let Putin keep the Russian speaking areas of Ukraine and agreed not to bring Ukraine into NATO. The West refused and now as the saying goes, in for dime in for a dollar. We can't stop now because all those Ukrainians will have died in vein so we must keep killing more. Many of the same people who agree with the current policy sit around and talk about how terrible war is and how the innocent civilians in Ukraine are being slaughtered but they still support the policy.

Defense

The United States spends $860 billion on defense while the other 29 NATO countries spend $400 billion combined. This allows these countries to have universal healthcare and other social benefits. Many people feel it is time for Europe to stop depending on the US for protection. NATO was begun to counteract the Soviet Union but the Soviets collapsed in 1990. It is time for Europe to start taking care of its security. Other international organizations need to face up to the realization that the US can no longer pay the majority of the cost to fund groups like the United Nations, The World Health Organization, and the World Trade Organization. If these other countries are unwilling to pay their fair share then the US should consider dropping out. There are 193 countries in the UN and the United States pays 22% of the budget. 

Sanctions

President Biden just announced 500 new sanctions on Russia. If these are effective why weren't they put in place two years ago. The sanctions are following the same path that military aid followed and many describe as too little too late. If there is more that can be done wouldn't it be wise to do that now.

Debt

Can one man make a difference? Yessiree bob! Jim is a bright young man who feels in his heart that he is destined to help others. He knows that to have the power to make changes he must get elected to public office. Politics will be the road to bringing about a better life for the people. He starts slow by becoming a state representative and through hard work and determination he gets to the US Congress. Jim is good with numbers and soon finds himself on the Ways and Means Committee which is all about money and taxes. Jim's goal is to bring the debt under control because he knows it is a time bomb that in the long term will destroy the country. The answer is simple. They must either raise taxes or cut spending or a combination of both. But what is the best way to do this? He quickly discovers that raising taxes won't work because as soon as the government takes in more money it quickly finds ways to spend it on new programs. Next, he finds out that cutting spending means cutting benefits and that is not the road to staying in office. His plan must allow for a smaller government but still stay in office. Jim realizes that it took many years to run up the debt and thus will take many years to remove the debt. He convinces Congress to pass a law saying that all future growth must be limited to one-half of one percent below the inflation rate of the previous year. The law cannot be overturned without a two-thirds vote. This means that only in the case of a national emergency, like a war, could Congress overturn the law. The budget for this year is $6 trillion and the debt is $34 trillion. If inflation over the next 100 years is 3% and the government increases spending by 2.5% then the inflated budget would be $115 trillion and the budget increases would be $75 trillion for a difference of $40 trillion and the debt would be gone. Of course, if there is a better way Jim would like to hear it.

Policies

The animosity toward Trump has been so intense, especially among democrats, that it has spawned the phrase Trump derangement syndrome. When Biden came into office he felt a compulsion to de Trump the country. This resulted in an attack on the fossil fuel industry, turning away from law and order, removing remain in Mexico, stopping the border wall, renewing catch and release, and sending signals that welcomed migrants. While these policies are being reversed back to the way they were when Trump left office, there is one that it seems is too late to reverse and that is one of the most important, which is the continuation of the Abraham Accords. Many now speculate that if Biden had continued this policy and entered into negotiations with Saudi Arabia the invasion by Hamas into Israel would not have happened and the subsequent invasion of Gaza would have been prevented. The anti-Trump agenda is still influencing the thinking of many in their view on Ukraine

Middle East

As the world moves away from globalization the United States must make a decision as to which way it wants to go. Most countries will not have this option because they are dependent on Middle East oil. The US went from being the largest importer of oil in 1990 to largest exporter of oil in 2020 as a result of shale oil. The rest of Europe and Asia are still depending on oil from the Middle East. If the US decides to stay and help Europe and Asia, they will continue to influence the Middle East as they are doing now in trying to keep the Suez open. That is option one. If the US decided to let the rest of the world take care of itself then it becomes a revival of the Monroe Doctrine. The US can still help Europe without helping Asia, more specifically China, by sending natural gas and oil to Europe and letting Asia deal with the Persian Gulf. If oil from the Gulf is disrupted China does not have the naval power to intervene and will suffer an economic collapse which some say is already underway. Japan has sided with the US by investing in American and, like Europe, can expect oil imports from the US. Other Asian countries like Vietnam, South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore will look to having good relations with the US to maintain oil supplies. At this point America is just idling while the world waits to see which way it will go. The end of the war in Ukraine will help all countries by opening up oil exports from Russia. This will also release the huge grain supplies from Russia and Ukraine and prevent starvation in Sub Sahara Africa.

Klein

Ezra Klein, the NY Times liberal, Biden supporter has called on Biden to step down. Klein says that Kamala Harris is a viable replacement. He says she is very capable and would do a good job as president but then he says she is held back because she is a Black woman. He says there are other good candidates to replace Biden and he list Gretchen Whitmer, Gavin Newsom, Pete Buttigieg and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. In case anyone was not sure of Klein's political views, the fact that he would consider Cortez for president should settle their concerns.

Ukraine

As the world watches the slow inexorable destruction of Ukraine, the promoters of this war are looking for a way to save face. American who are 5,000 miles away are still holding on the idea that Russia must be defeated or they will attempt to take over the world. The Europeans who are much closer to the action see things differently. Only one in ten Europeans believe that Ukraine can defeat Russia, according to an EU-wide poll.  The American view has now entered the trap of political sides. Trump has indicated he would seek peace so others are automatically opposed to Trump, no matter what. It is far better to continue killing Ukrainians and destroying their country than to side with Trump. It is time for the never Trump people to look into their hearts and ask if this is the right thing to do.

DNC

There is speculation surrounding the possibility that Biden may decide not to run. If that happens before the convention then the delegates will select the nominee. If it happens after the convention then the DNC will select. The DNC has been running the show for the past years as witness by the way they pushed Bernie Sanders aside and how they would not allow debates. This means if the insiders are in charge, as many suspect, then Biden will drop out after the convention and the DNC will select the nominee. In this way they can by pass Harris without upsetting the demand for a Black woman candidate. Rumor is that this means that the Clintons and Obamas will choose.

Trump

Just about daily there is someone on some program trying to analyze Trump. One way to understand him is to consider an outsider, not Trump, who is an entrepreneur running for president. This person would operate completely differently from a career politician just based on their background. If you work for a large corporation and you are faced with an important decision you will check with the different departments to help you make a decision all the while taking into account how you will justify your decision if things don't work out. When all the dust settles and it turns out it was a mistake you are ready with the reasons why you acted the way you did. You say I checked with marketing that they thought it a good idea. I checked with sales and they were confident they could sell it. I checked with production and they had all the equipment they needed to produce the product. So I went with it. You have now just saved your job. If you own your business you approach decision making in an entirely different way. You evaluate things from all perspectives and then search your gut for the final decision. If you're the CEO and you make a bad decision you can't say I went for it because I had a gut feeling it was the way to go but as a private business owner you can do that. Trump spent his life going with his gut feelings and that is the way he operated as president. Both the CEO and the private business owner come down to the end by making the final decision but one is concerned about how he would explain the failure but the other knows it’s all on him no matter how he makes the decision. One way this is evident with Trump is that politician tacticians often say that Trump seems to snatch defeat out of the mouth of victory. He is acting contrary to how the experts would act. Even now they are saying if Trump were smart he would keep quiet and let the press report on Biden's polls but he comes out and says he wants to curtail NATO.

Reshoring

Because of globalization the United States lost 3.2 million manufacturing jobs between 2001 and 2013. Companies that made computer and electronic parts, textiles and apparel, and furniture were hit the hardest. This is now changing and jobs are coming back to the US in what is called reshoring. It was started by Trump with make America great again and continued under Biden's America First. This will be an opportunity for unions to make a come back. The middle income workers benefit most from bringing the jobs home. The new factories will use the latest technology and be bolstered by AI. It has already started. In 2023, US construction spending on new manufacturing facilities more than doubled compared with 2022. Companies spent, on average, $16.2 billion dollars a month building new production facilities. The increase in productivity though automation will offset the adverse effects of inflation. These factory jobs will require workers with technical skills to run automated production lines and the US has the workers. The migrants will take over the less skilled jobs. One of the biggest savings will be transportation cost and this also will help fight inflation.

Chemistry

People often talk about the computer revolution but for the average person this doesn't mean much. People need to see an example to get a better understanding. When I studied chemistry in school it was common for a student seeking a masters degree to create a new chemical compound. The student would normally do this by taking an existing compound and adding another compound to it. This new compound was named according to the rules developed by the International Union of Pure and Applied Chemistry(IUPAC). The student then using various lab techniques calculates the qualities of the new compound, things like boiling point, density and solubility. These lab procedures often took many months or sometimes years. In today's world the starting chemical is available on line and can be placed upon the computer screen. Next the student adds the new compound to the existing compound on the screen and the new compound is made. Then with a click all of the qualities of this new compound will be displayed. These results are not 100% accurate and need further refinement but for most purposes they allow the chemist to save thousands of hours of lab work. This new compound can then be reacted with other compounds to predict end products and all done on the computer.

Economy

IN 1932 FDR took office in the midst of the Great Depression. Four years later he was reelected in the midst of the Great Depression. Four years later he was reelected in the midst of the Great Depression. After ten long years of the worst economic disaster in US history, WW 2 started and the economy turned around. Four years later the United States emerged as the most powerful economic engine in history and this continues until this day. The biggest mistake the West made in evaluating Russia's ability to win the war in Ukraine was that the US forgot its history. Russia has embarked upon a wartime economy and is building up its military using deficit financing just as the US did in 1941. As NATO countries come to understand that the US may not be so willing to come to their defense they too will start to build up their military and they too will experience economic growth. One of the reasons that the US economy is the largest in the world is that the US spends more on the military than the next ten countries combined. The West stands by and watches the destruction of Ukraine and its people while the Russian economy grows stronger.

Voters

It is often said the people are not voting so much for Biden as they are voting against Trump. A good way to test this theory is to ask those voters if they would vote for the Republican candidate if it were someone other than Trump, say DeSantis or Haley.

Biden

Sometimes racism is blatant and sometimes it is subtle and not easy to discern. Back in 2007 President Biden said when referring to Obama. "I mean, you got the first mainstream African-American who is articulate and bright and clean and a nice-looking guy. I mean, that's a storybook, man." This is blatant. Thirteen years later in 2020 Biden says while speaking to a Black group. . “Well I tell you what, if you have a problem figuring out whether you’re for me or Trump, then you ain’t black.” This is subtle.

Trump

Most people change as they go through life. Most of the time the change is gradual but sometimes it occurs quickly when some specific event occurs. Twenty-five years ago, I would never consider voting for a person like Trump because moral character was too important in my thinking. Those were the days when the Democrats were the party of the working man and Republicans were the party of business. It was the old battle between labor and capital but over the past 30 years that has changed. Globalization turned the world upside down. Liberal-thinking people who considered themselves champions of the blue-collar workers promoted world trade, which meant sending good-paying manufacturing jobs overseas while allowing the rich to profit handsomely. The result is that the two parties have exchanged places with the Republicans becoming the workingman's party. While this was going on, the establishment gained almost total control over the country. The bureaucrats joined forces with businesses by way of lobbyists while the press, including social media, banned together with the wealthy to promote policies that would keep the working people down. Elected officials regularly promoted wars on distant lands where the soldiers were the low and middle-income earners and the defense contractors worked out deals with the politicians. In the 2016 election, the same people who voted for Obama changed parties, so much for racism, and voted for Trump. They were fed up after 30 years of being left behind and saw Trump as the anti-establishment choice, the man who would drain the swamp. These insiders see Trump as a threat to their power and are fearful of his reelection. If elected Trump may not be able to change the system but he can make a start and if he only achieves minor success, it may be the beginning of a change that will take several administrations. This is an uphill battle but well worth overlooking Trump's character, to get the country back into the hands of the working people. Sometimes circumstances require people to view things differently.

Climate

Many people have contended that climate change is more political than climate. In the last three years this has become more apparent. The subject of climate change has just about disappeared from the news. Most people are not that concerned about climate change as witnessed by their personal life styles. Those concerned are the people who make money from promoting climate change. A democrat is in the White House and the country is producing more coal, oil and natural gas than anytime in history. This has taken the politics out of the issue and thus the silence.

Ukraine

During the Clinton administration the idea of advancing NATO eastward in Europe was discussed. Some like George Kennan and Bill Perry, Secretary of Defense, were opposed but were over ruled by Clinton and Secretary of State Holbrooke. In 1999 NATO countries were joined by Chechia, Hungary and Poland. Then in 2004 Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia joined NATO. At the 2008 Bucharest Summit opportunities to join were open to Croatia, Albania, Greece, Georgia and Ukraine. Sarkozy of France and Merkel of Germany opposed entry of Ukraine into NATO; Former German chancellor Angela Merkel on Monday defended her 2008 decision to block Ukraine from immediately joining NATO, rejecting President Volodymyr Zelensky's criticism as Russia's invasion clouds her 16-year legacy. Just prior to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Putin warned of the danger. He expressed concern that NATO could eventually use the Ukrainian territory to deploy missiles capable of reaching Moscow in just five minutes. “The emergence of such threats represents a 'red line' for us,” Putin said.Nov 30, 2021 Why the West wanted to continue the push of NATO Eastward is now under discussion and questioning the purpose. Would missiles be placed in Ukraine. Currently the US has missiles in England, Germany, France, Turkey, Netherlands, Greece and Belgium. The US has tactical nuclear weapons in Belgium, Germany, Italy, Netherlands and Turkey. Did Putin have a legitimate reason to be concerned is the question.

War

The war in Ukraine has many asking just how did Putin think it was acceptable to launch an attack. There are some things that people believe in so strongly they are called first principals. There are no solutions to these problems so they need a higher power to decide. If two people disagree to the point they are willing to resort to violence the higher power intervenes to maintain civility. This works within the country but disagreements between countries have no higher power so war is always a possibility. So what are the acceptable reasons to declare war. Countries want to avoid war but it is always in the background because countries are always concerned about security. Countries have tried unsuccessfully to outlaw war so the international community has come up with three legal reasons to go to war. The first is called preemptive strike. When there is good evidence that another state is preparing to attack the first state can preemptively attack. The second is to get permission from the UN Security Council and the third is to protect people from mass genocide. There are two illegal reasons why wars are started. First is a preventive war, not to be confused with preemptive war. Country A see another country building up their military but is not a direct threat. The second reason is an opportunity war where Country A attacks because the other country is in a weakened position. The situation in Ukraine settles around the words preemptive and preventive. As Putin saw the advancement of NATO into Eastern Europe he saw a existential threat to Russia and thus he saw the need for preemption. The West saw the growth of NATO as as minor threat to Russia and thus considered the invasion of Ukraine as preventive. The only solution to this war is a negotiated settlement or else to witness the slow and total destruction of Ukriane.

Sports

I missed the Super Bowl so today I watched the 15 minute high speed version and while watching a thought came into my head regarding sports in general. How nice it would be if we had the same striving for excellence in our schools that we have on the field. There is no equity in sports. There are no excuses for poor performance. It involves not only the athletes but the coaches and management. When you don't play up to your ability you are out. This is not just in professional sports but also in high school and college. Recently Bill Belichick coach of the Patriots was fired because his team didn't win the last few seasons. His record was 29 wins and 30 loses. Not good enough. In 24 seasons under Belichick, the Patriots won 17 AFC East division titles, made 13 appearances in the AFC Championship Game, and appeared in nine Super and won six. Many of these football players have come from disadvantaged family situations but though hard work they were able excel. The chances of making it to the NFL are slim to none for most but that doesn't keep them from going all out to be their best. How refreshing.

Cars

The average price of a new car is $48,000. A new car is not something for the average working family man. Cars these days will last go 250,000 miles and last for 20 years. The regular person should buy a car that is five years old and keep it for 10 years and then buy another five year old car. Throughout the persons life they will buy 5 cars owning each one for 10 years. Here is an example assuming interest free five year loans. A new Ford Explorer cost $46,000 and in five years it is worth $32,000. Five cars at $32,000 per car is $160,000 over this persons life time. The person who buys a new car every five years will spend $46,000 times 10 cars or $460,000 in a life time. This is a $300,000 savings money that can be used for family needs. If you add in interest on loans the savings on used cars is much greater.

DEI

The diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) fad is coming to an end but do not throw out the baby with the bath water. Diversity and inclusion are laudable objectives but equity is un American. Diversity and inclusion are about equal opportunity but equity is about equal results. Equal opportunity means merit based where the best rise to the top. It means striving for excellence. This will result some doing better than others but all can be winners. Some will earn more money and some will have more fame but all will have a chance to get there. The are many examples of people coming from disadvantaged situations who have overcome serious obstacles and reaching goals that some only dream about.

Trump

The coming election with the possibility of Trump winning is a cause of great consternation among many and in particular the political class. The dilemma revolves around the two ways of looking at Trump. The anti Trumpers fall into two groups. The first are the ordinary voters who see Trump as an egomaniac concerned only about his own image and power, who says things and acts in ways that are totally inappropriate in civil society and provides an image to the world that is unflattering to America. The second group are the establishment composed of the bureaucracy, the democratic party, the old line republicans, big business, the press, Hollywood, and Silicon Valley. They are afraid that Trump will disrupt the status quo and upend the power structure. All of these groups have a vested interest in not rocking the boat. Their unwarranted fear of Bernie Sanders pushed them into a candidate that they knew was incompetent but could be controlled and not upset the apple cart. What these groups fail to understand is that the middle income people that they have professed to be concerned about, have discovered that they were just being used as pawns to promote globalization. This resulted in huge profits for business, loss of good jobs for the middle group and widening wealth distribution. CEO's who make 300 times what the workers make and one half of the wealth belongs to the top one percent illustrates how the working people are not being served by the establishment and want a change. The only way out is for those in power to use that power in what ever way that is necessary to defeat Trump. If they are successful that will cement their power structure for many more years.

US

Russia's most significant opposition leader for the past decade, Alexei Navalny, has died in an Arctic Circle jail, the prison service has said. Several experts stated how terrible Putin is for putting his chief rival in jail. Could that happen in the US

Ukraine

Who is responsible for the great miscalculation. NATO led by the US ran headlong into their mission to save Ukraine. The plan was to put crushing sanctions on Russia while simultaneously providing them with the armaments they needed to defend themselves. The war materials came very slowly at first because it was assumed that Russia would storm into Kiev and the war would be over in a week. As the Russian troops moved in the West would have to decide if they wanted to invade Ukraine and go face to face with the Russians. No one will know how this would have turned out but the fear of confronting Russia directly would have most likely deterred any attack. As Ukraine rose to defend themselves the world looked to their leader Zelenskyy with awe and soon he became a cult hero and the West was in the fight. The result has been a two year war where Ukraine is a mess and thousands have died while the Russian economy has grown with the help of countries who are not aligned with NATO. Who are these experts that predicted that Russia would succumb to the economic pressure and fold. Will they have to answer for this miscalculation.

Real estate

There is a saying in the business world that the value of something is what a willing buyer will pay a willing seller. When it comes to real estate both sides normally hire an appraiser to value the property and then they negotiate a final price. With the IRS it is different. They tell the taxpayer to place a value and if they disagree they will not allow it. This is important because depreciation, which is often times the reason the person bought the property, will determine if it is a good investment. The case against Trump is interesting because the claim is that he overvalued his property to get larger loans. The banks who offered the loans did not object to the price and in fact made a profit on the deal. Now, someone other than the buyer or seller, in this case the court has decided the property was overvalued.

Misinformation

The story of Trump/Russia collusion was called misinformation. The March 2018 House report found that the production of the ICA,deviated from established CIA practice. And the core judgment that Putin sought to help Trump, resulted from significant intelligence tradecraft failings that undermine confidence in the ICA judgments. The ICA is the department that requests classified information. The tale of improper CIA and FBI surveillance mixed with manufactured intelligence has been in the news since late 2017. Here are a few examples of how the news treated people who suggested that collusion was a hoax. Formen CIA agent Ray McGovern was called fringe and conspiracy-mongering Glenn Greewald was denounced as a pathological bigot Maria Bartiromo was declared bonkers Pulizter writer Jeff Gerth was called a Trump Russia denialist There are dozens more examples easily obtained on the Internet. The government knew this collusion story was not true but they remained silent. Many feel this was a example of election interferrence.

Europe

The news is filled with article from various sources that can be illustrated by this article from Forbes. “The U.S. may not be coming to save us,” analyst Justin Bronk wrote while announcing his new study for the Royal United Services Institute in London. To prevent authoritarian takeover, and the potential destruction of democracy in Europe, NATO’s other members must immediately ramp up production of munitions and prepare their air forces for the dangerous task of destroying Russian air-defenses. This is only one of many articles on the Internet basically saying the same thing. Many think it is about time.

Mines

The idea that fossil fuels were causing climate change became popular about 40 years ago. Since that time governments have provided subsidies to help the growth of wind and solar. The result is that CO2 emissions have continued to increase. The first explanation for this, seeming contradiction, is that the need for energy has grown faster than the growth of wind and solar. While that is certainly a part of the reason another more important part, but one not easily recognized, is the environmental cost to mine the raw materials needed for wind and solar. These cost are rarely if ever included in the conversations about climate change. For those, who take the time to investigate the total cost of solar panels, windmills and EV's, what is called the life cycle assessment, the results vary by where the mines are. Today where the mines are located results show a decrease in CO2, but if you move the mines away from places that have few regulations and use slave labor the CO2 increases. To keep the CO2 levels from increasing it is necessary for example to destroy the water in China and have children mining cobalt in Africa. It will be very difficult to get the American people to agree to opening mines in the US.

Climate

Russia's covert climate war on Germany can help the people of the United States to understand the Greenies war on America. The Russian government working behind the scenes promoted the climate activist in Germany to take action to first stop all coal production, second to shut down all nuclear plants and to rely on wind and solar and Russian natural gas. Russia then had control of the German economy. The Greenies in the US go even further. They want to close coal, stop fracking which means no oil or natural gas and to move away from nuclear power. This leaves the country with only wind and solar. This is an indirect way to move control to the government without anyone being the wiser. The electric power will be intermittent and thus controlled by the government. There will be controls on the home thermostats and mileage charges on transportation. Travel will be limited based on need and the need will be determined by government. There will be carbon taxes on air lines because they will need jet fuel to fly. The military will face a rationing of any fossil fuel they may need. The cost of materials will rise quickly as mining needed to supply materials for wind and solar will be over regulated to protect the environment. As the cost of energy rises inflation will follow. The cost of home heating in Germany quadrupled in just one year. Russian natural gas is no longer available in Germany and they have reopened their coal plants and there are calls to reactivate the nuclear plants. The US has a chance to avoid all of this chaos by moving to natural gas for transportation and start building new small nuclear reactors. Meanwhile heavy industry throughout Europe is moving to China where two new coal plants are built every week.

CIA

It's time for a new Church Committee to investigate the CIA. The CIA was founded in 1947 and ran for thirty years without oversight. During those years many newspaper reports based on whistle blowers and insiders exposed the many illegal activities of the CIA but nothing was done about it until the senate investigated in 1975. This proved the CIA was out of control and new rules were put in place to keep them legal. Since that time there are once again leaks that the CIA is using unlawful means to gather information and using illegal tactics to affect world affairs. This time, however the supposed guardians of the constitution are absent or worse in cahoots with the government. A recent report by independent journalists Michael Shellenberger, Matt Taibbi and Alex Gutentag have revealed illegal activities by government and the cover up of same. Since there will be no followup by the main stream press this report will probably just disappear. The feared military industrial complex has turned into the government press complex. Freedom of speech is being sacrificed in the name of national security using code words like disinformation and misinformation. The salvation is the growth in pod cast where more and more people are getting their news.

Natural gas

When people are emotionally involved in an issue they are easy to manipulate. For example, when Biden came into office he immediately put a freeze on fracking on government lands. The Greenies were ecstatic as they saw this as Biden getting tough on the fossil fuel industry. What no one told them is that 99% of natural gas production was on private land. When the oil companies complained, this added credence to the Biden's show of toughness. More recently Biden has put a stop to future construction of natural gas export facilities. Once again the Greenies are excited and the fossil fuel industry is crying in their beer. Currently the US has the capacity to ship 13 billion cubic feet(BCF) of natural gas per day and much of this is going to Europe to replace the Russia gas they lost. Currently there is under construction enough new facilities to add another 12 BCF and already permitted another 16 BCF. What Biden has done is put a temporary hold on future permits beyond what is already under way. Once again it was a ploy to satisfy a political need and it is working. What the Greenies do not understand is that wind and solar need what is called base energy, that is, a backup when the wind doesn't blow and the sun doesn't shine and natural gas is the best way if they oppose nuclear. The nice thing about natural gas is that the power can be increased or decreased in a matter of minutes so it the perfect complement to wind and solar.

Troops

Most people today agree that the United States should not be the world's policeman. If this is the case why are their 170,000 active duty military troops stationed in 1,000 location across 178 countries. In many of these places these troops are sitting ducks in Syria and Iraq for example. How many people would want their sons or daughters sitting on one of these sites. When something goes wrong and someone is injured or killed the government response is oops.

NATO

Prior to the first world war, Europe was a divided continent, with each side building up their military forces as they prepared for war. In a situation like this it only takes a small spark to set the world afire and that happened on June 28, 1914 when the Archduke of Austria was assassinated and WW 1 was underway. Today we have a similar situation with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). This is a group of 29 countries who have banded to together to balance the military power of the former Soviet Union. In 1991 the Soviet Union collapsed but the treaty remains in force. The congress has the power to abrogate a treaty and should set about doing so. As it stands now if Russia invaded Estonia, NATO led by the US would be bound by law to invade Russia which could quickly lead to nuclear war. Just like most people never heard of the Archduke, most have no knowledge of Estonia, a country of 1.3 million people 5,000 miles across the Atlantic. If the Europeans want to continue with the treaty that is their business but many feel it is time for the US to withdraw from NATO.

HP10

I was watching a program about Voyager space craft that launched in 1976 and the very small on board computer and I was reminded of the HP 10C hand held calculator I bought in 1982. I was doing financial work at the time and needed to take a salary of $20,000 per years and increase it by 3% each year for 30 years. At the same time I needed to take 5% of each years salary and invest it earning 4% and then find out how much I saved over the 30 years. I would do this year by year for the 30 years by hand. I was working one evening in the office and the young man who cleaned the place was watching me and told me of an easier way. It turns out he was an engineering student at UND and told me I had a programmable calculator and he could fix it to help me which he proceeded to do. After that I only needed to put in the first year and then hit a repeat button and the second year would pop up and then again for the third and so on. This turned a two hour job into a ten minute job and is a very simple example of how computers were able to revolutionize business. I still have the HP 10 but it is of little use since all new calculators can do this.

Natural gas

Using natural gas for internal combustion engines in place of gasoline and diesel not only reduces CO2 but also helps to clean up the air in general. Burning gasoline and diesel releases many organic carcinogens along with chemicals that produce acid rain. Natural gas does not do that. While the country is taking steps to fight climate change there is no reason why they couldn't immediately switch all transportation over to natural gas. It cost less, runs cleaner and reduces wear and tear on the engine. This change should have taken place years ago. That along with increasing dependence on nuclear for power plants while they are expanding wind and solar could have had a profound improvement on the climate problem.

No Wars

To say we live in a fast changing world is an understatement. Let's go back five years to February 2019. Home mortgage rates are under 2% Inflation is under 2% The border is secure Crime in the cities under control Abraham Accords are getting ready to include Saudi Arabia The US is energy independent Real wages for working people are up for the first time in 40 years No wars

War

In my youth, I was more left of center in my politics but as time passed I moved right of center. This change was gradual but was most noticeable with my support of Johnson's Great Society. I thought it a grand idea, a way to help those in need, and voted for Johnson because of it. In was only later when I discovered the inefficiency in the government's reallocating resources. Much of the money went to new programs and each wanted to enlarge their budget and their influence and in time those most in need seemed to be left behind. To this day I see the war on poverty as mostly a waste of good resources. Over the years I moved back and forth between center right and center left but as I watched the middle and lower income groups lose their good paying manufacturing jobs to the new fad of globalization, I moved right and stayed there. Throughout the late 60's and 70's I watched cold war pacifist, who were almost exclusively liberals, live in fear of the Soviet Union. Reagan, in particular, rattled them when he called the Soviets the evil empire. Many responded with the slogan better red than dead. This fear led them to believe that the government could take care of them and they already had a penchant toward government. It started with the US government but soon spread to their liking of international governmental agencies. They were particularly fond of the UN. As the left became more enamored with government I became more suspicious. The lies that were uncovered by government, especially regarding war, further convinced me that government could not and should not be trusted. As I try to discern the motives for the Ukraine situation, I have the uneasy feeling that the government once again is not being forthcoming. The two year stalemate has enhanced the defense companies and destroyed Ukraine. Most people are too busy with their day to day activities to be concerned about a war that is thousands of miles away but in time that will change and many feel the change is already started.

War

Most people are not old enough to remember 1970 but for those who do there is an eerie resemblance to what is going on today. In 1970 the Vietnam War was in its fifth year and a certain uneasiness had crept into the daily lives of the people. They began to ask themselves questions like what are we doing, are we sure of the purpose of being in Southeast Asia. The government had said it was necessary and the people went along under the assumption that those in power knew something the rest didn't and now citizens were asking what did they know. This is where many people are today as they ask themselves what is going on in Ukraine. Are we getting the information we need. Is the government being open and honest with us or are they lying just as they did in Vietnam. Up to this point the people have remained silent in their doubts but rest assured the first time the suggestion to send troops comes up there will be many who will demand more information. What does it mean when the president says as long as it takes. Takes to do what. Regime change in Russia. Victory in Ukraine. What does victory look like and what happens next.

Argentina

Argentina is in the news these days because of a controversial the new President Javier Milei. He is an outsider who came to power promising to change things by making things tough. He was a TV talking head with no political experience. He promised to rein in soaring inflation by crusading against the creeping socialism in the country. During most of the 19th Century Argentina was a prosperous country selling exports to the United States and a free market economic system. As in all capitalist economies there were winners and losers and this opened the door for change. This all changed in 1940 when Juan Peron came to power. He saw the income disparities and promised a new kind of government that would combine socialism with capitalism. He set about building schools and hospitals in poor areas. He built houses for poor people. The government over time provided more and more benefits and this led to many new government agencies which led to corruption. To pay for these benefit the government printed money and borrowed money and soon economic growth began to slow. This led to high inflation and Milei promised to cut programs and he is doing that. Milei is pledging economic shock therapy. His plans include shutting the central bank, ditching the peso, and slashing spending, potentially painful reforms that resonated with voters angry at the economic malaise. People do not like austerity programs and the new president will soon find out how much pain the citizens are willing to put up with.

Party members

Trump in just four years revamped the republican party and many of the establishment GOP turned away from Trump. These old time republicans like Bill Crystal, George Will, Mitt Romney and Rockafeller types became never trumpers. One explanation has to do with Trumps background. First off he was not a politician. He was in the construction business. He never sided with the bankers who loaned him the money for his building and he saw them as money hungry vultures. His friends were the construction workers who built the buildings. He understood how they suffered from globalization as they watched manufacturing jobs go overseas. The new republican party became the party of the working man at the same time that college educated Whites along with Wall Street bankers moved toward the democrats. In just a few short years the base of each party exchanged places.

War

During the almost 50 years of the cold war the world was held together by the fear of the theory of mutually assured destruction (MAD). It has been over 20 years since the fall of the Soviet Union and fears of nuclear war are once again in the news but there is a misunderstanding as to how or why this might happened. Most people think of the many Intercontinental guided missiles (ICBM's) that would be launched by each country toward the other but there is another deterrent one far more difficult to defend against. These are the Ohio Class submarines. There are 18 of these somewhere under the ocean where they can remain submerged for 4 months at a time. Each of these subs can direct a hydrogen bomb to 192 separate cities and each bomb is 25 times more powerful than the bombs dropped on Japan to end WW 2. If someone could disable the land base missiles from launching using a computer hack they would still have to deal with the subs. No sane person would do this but what about and insane person. Picture Hitler at the end of WW 2 when he was in his bunker getting ready to kill himself. Would he have launched. The only hope against a madman launching is that those around him would not allow it. In the US the president alone cannot launch but it requires a series of events involving several people. Only the president has the authority to launch but others are involved in the process. Similar procedures exist in Russia. If small tactical nukes are used on the battle field this could quickly escalate into an all out war but once again the submarines would be a strong deterrent.

Racism

Bureaucracy

A brief history of politics since 2015 exposes the power of the bureaucracy. In the run up to the 2016 election the FBI received a warrant from the FISA court to spy on Trump foreign policy adviser Carter Page which opened the door for them to spy on all of Trump's people. They used false information from the Steele dossier to set up the Trump/Russia collusion and then fed leaks to the New York Times who in turn published the false information. Once the Times got on board the rest of the main stream press joined in. This led to an investigation by a special prosecutor and was the main political story for the rest of the campaign and for most of the Trump presidency. Then comes the 2020 election and once again the bureaucracy flexes its muscles. The information from the Hunter Biden laptop was suppressed by the FBI and when it leaked out in the New York Post the FBI countered by saying it was Russian disinformation and once again this led to a special counsel investigation which proved that the so called disinformation was in fact true. In the 2016 affair the NY Times and Washington Post both received Pulitzer Prizes and they have since admitted they were wrong. In the 2020 affair they all admit they were wrong but no apologies are forth coming. The reason the press is not interested in trying to find out how the bureaucracy was able to pull this off is because they were complicit. Now the 2024 election is upon us and the bureaucracy is pushing the January 6 riots in an attempted to incarcerate Trump. The power is so ingrained in the bureaucracy that it will be next to impossible for anyone to challenge them since they have secret dirt on most people in Washington. Senator Schumer, who has been a Washington insider for 40 years said it best. New Senate Minority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) said Tuesday that President-elect Donald Trump is “being really dumb” by taking on the intelligence community and its assessments on Russia’s cyber activities.“Let me tell you, you take on the intelligence community, they have six ways from Sunday at getting back at you,” Schumer told MSNBC’s Rachel Maddow. If Trump is reelected he will once again try to reign in the power of the bureaucracy but he will need a lot of help to start the process but it will take further presidents to follow up.

War

It is said, and with good reason, that truth is the first casualty of war. Here is a report from the New York Times. Russia’s military casualties, the officials said, are approaching 300,000. The number includes as many as 120,000 deaths and 170,000 to 180,000 injured troops. The Russian numbers dwarf the Ukrainian figures, which the officials put at close to 70,000 killed and 100,000 to 120,000 wounded. Many will read this and say that Ukraine is winning. This is reminiscent of the Vietnam War where daily casualty reports were published showing that for every US soldier killed there were ten Vietcong killed. Somehow in the minds of the American people this was looked upon as good news. US troops were in Vietnam for 8 years and 58,000 died. So far in just two years 70,000 Ukrainians have died. The Vietnam War finally ended in a negotiated settlement that could have been achieved years earlier. Will the world have to wait many more years to get a settlement in Ukraine.

Armed

Trump has said the rioters were not armed but NPR checked this out and here is their report Yes, Capitol Rioters Were Armed. Here Are The Weapons Prosecutors Say They Used Here is a list of the weapons found in the Jan 6 crowd G2c 9 mm handgun Volt Stun Gun Walking Stick blunt objects batons large stick pocket knife evidence shows him "brutally assaulting law enforcement officers" with both a hockey stick and a "sharpened pole" during the riot. vast majority of the estimated 800 rioters, were not searched that day. in his truck, which was parked near the Capitol. According to the court, the government found "a loaded handgun," "a loaded rifle," "a loaded shotgun," "a crossbow with bolts," "several machetes," "a stun gun" 

Intent

The controversy around special counsel Hur's decision not to prosecute Biden could have been avoided if he had followed the strategy that FBI director Comey used in the Hillary email case. Comey said Hillary violated the law in using a private email server but her actions didn't warrant criminal charges. He said she was extremely careless and negligent. James Comey has stuck by his claim that declining to bring charges against Hillary Clinton for mishandling classified information was the right call because proof of intent was lacking.  The key word is "intent". Special counsel Hur could have said that Biden violated the law by removing classified documents but his actions did not warrant criminal charges because he did not have "intent". General intent is an actual intent to perform some act, but without a wish for the consequences that result from that act. For most people who do not study law this intent stuff sounds like a get out of jail free card.

China

Some say that Biden is beholden to China because of his son's business dealings but the facts belie that. Trump clamored for restrictions against China claiming they used currency manipulation and intellectual property theft to promote unfair trade practices. To counteract these activities Trump installed a 20% import tax on $300 billion dollars of Chinese imports. When Biden took office he retained these tariffs and is now considering additional import taxes. Biden recently stopped the exports of chips to China something they need. The Inflation Reduction Act reduced US dependency on China. Biden is like Trump in that both are pro America and promote de coupling from China. China has many serious problems and losing exports to the US is cause for alarm.

Israel

The situation in Israel is perplexing to say the least. Israel has been at war with its neighbors eight times since it became a state in 1948. The area of Israel is 8,500 sq miles and Palestine is 2,500 sq miles. Many say that Israel is so much more advanced that it doesn't need help from the US to keep Palestine in line. While that is true the only reason Israel survived the wars was because of US help. If the US would announce that it would no longer support Israel the Arab countries with a population of several hundred million would once again see Israel as an easy target and attack. The problem with that is that Israel has nukes and they would use them. Think of Greater Israel as a state within a state. It would be like Texas being a separate country that kept sending rockets into Oklahoma. How would the federal government react. What if the rocket launchers were in populated areas.

Putin

This is from the New York Times In a two-hour interview, President Vladimir Putin of Russia was more direct than usual about how he sees his Ukraine invasion ending: not with a military victory, but a deal with the West. This opens the door for a way to bring a peaceful end to this war. It starts by sitting down and talking and then see where that leads. Opportunity is knocking.

Bureaucracy

One of the more interesting and surprising aspects of the Snowden releases was that members of congress were unaware of the massive surveillance programs undertaken by the NSA. These are the elected people who are supposed to oversee the activities of the unelected. Once again the bureaucrats are exposed as running the country behind the scenes. We see this on a regular basis when the various government departments refuse to turn over information or slow walk the turnover. The bureaucrats running these departments seem to have no fear of reprisal. The press which is supposed to be the protectors of democracy are fearful that the government has dope on them so they stay on the sidelines and just report what is handed to them. In the current election there are claims on both sides that democracy is threatened but this claim can also be made against the bureaucracy.

Whistle blower

The argument against whistle blowers is usually stated as what if they reveal secrets that cause death and destruction. This brings up the question of what causes the most harm. The answer is to follow the method used in ordinary criminal cases. The laws are designed to go overboard to keep from sending an innocent person to prison which often allows the guilty to go free. This is the solution agreed to in an imperfect world. The same approach should be used for whistle blowers. The benefit of the doubt should go to the whistle blower.

Snowden

The case of Edward Snowden is mindful of the situation the German officers found themselves in under Hitler. Snowden took an oath to uphold the constitution but soon discovered that the government was not following the constitution. He questioned a number of his co workers about this and they understood that listening to US citizens was illegal according to the forth amendment commonly referred to as the right of privacy. He now must ignore the forth amendment or break his oath. This is the German officer who said he was just following orders when he gassed Jews. He could have chosen not to follow orders and been punished just as Snowden chose not to follow his oath and was punished. Section 72 of the Foreign Intelligence Office (FISA) allows the government to secretly listen in on foreign agents and entities. This is legal but it quickly spread to include US citizens as witnessed in the Trump administration. History shows that powerful secret surveillance tools will be abused for political ends. When government officials testified under oath that they did not abuse FISA what they meant was they only intended to listen to foreign agents but accidentally listened to US citizens. If they accidentally heard something they thought was illegal they could then use the regular courts to go after this person which they did. The US government has used the excuse of national security to cover up illegal activities for years and it is only when a whistle blower exposes them that they get caught. Thus they have the Espionage Act of 1917 to punish any whistle blower. Snowden chose to reveal how the government was using Section 72 to gather information on US citizens and fled to Russia in 2013 where he resides to this day.

Immigrants

Polls show that 73% of Americans want legal immigrants and this is presents an opportunity. Illegal border crossing during the eight years of the Obama administration and the four years under Trump averaged less than 50,000 per month. The past three years under Biden the average was 200,000. The new plan to fix the border calls for allowing 150,000 illegals per month. While this seems like a good move forward coming down from 200,000 to 150,000 it is not a solution. One group that is concerned about illegal migrants is unions as they see these people putting pressure to lower wages. The beauty of legal immigration is not only that it controls the issue but it can be merit based meaning the new immigrants will be people with high tech skills and will not directly compete with union workers. Canada has a merit based system and allows for 500,000 legal immigrants per year which would be the equivalent of 5 million per year in the United States. Canada requirement are Be under 30 years old. Hold at least two Bachelor's degrees or a Master's degree. Be able to demonstrate moderate to high English and/or French language proficiency (Canadian Language Benchmark [CLB] level nine or higher) Have at least three years of skilled work experience.

War

As a boy growing up during WW 2, I was thrilled to see movies like Thirty Seconds Over Tokyo and God Is My Copilot. These were propaganda films produced by Hollywood to bolster the homeland. The news media was the same way showing only the Allies side of the war. It was what the country needed as the war dragged on. Korea was the same thing on a smaller scale. Vietnam started out the same way with the press rallying the people behind the war but it went on longer than Korea or WW2 and the people started to change their minds. This change was aided by the coverage of war correspondence. The news started out like all previous wars just reporting what the government sent out but in time and with the help of TV the news came more from other sources. The war lasted much longer and by the mid 1960's people were starting to question the government. In the early 1970's the Pentagon Papers were leaked to the press showing how the government had been lying for years about the war and this turned the tables. Protest erupted across the country and the pressure was on to reach a peace agreement which happened 1975. The war in Ukraine is in the early stages and the news is almost exclusively pro war. There are many instances where anti war sentiment is blocked on social media. If the war drags on it is only a matter of time before the people refuse to accept the government view as presented in the press and demand another course of action. The Vietnam War became a political issue in the 1964 election and Johnson declined to run for a second term. It took ten years for the public to rise up against the Vietnam War. Let us hope it doesn't take that long this time. Search for information and do not trust the government reports.

Election

Here is the best Biden strategy for reelection. First and foremost go all out on ballot harvesting Have special prosecutor Jack Smith start the trial in late July so it will carry through to mid October. In federal trials the defendant must be in court everyday and this will limit Trump's campaign activities. Keep Biden in the background offering short daily messages from the bully pulpit providing updates about the trial and send out surrogates to talk up the Inflation Reduction Act and Infrastructure Bill. Get help from states to put abortion issues on the ballot Leak negative info to the press about Trump Avoid foreign policy to avoid Ukraine No debates saying that Trump uses misinformation to confuse the voters Do not talk about Bidenomics or ending democracy. Avoid issues like the border, crime, climate change and the cost of food and cultural issues.

Russia

When it comes to the future the best that most can do is to make an educated guess. This is what is happening in Ukraine. The experts say if we don't stop Putin now then he will attack some NATO country like Poland or Lithuania and the US will then be at war with Russia. According to Majority Leader Senate Schumer American troops will be dying in Europe and WW 3 will begin. Now it seemed that this scenario was more believable before Russia invaded but things look different now. The Russia Army has been exposed as weak and disorganized. They have spent two years trying to defeat the 18th ranked army in the world. In spite of this we are being told that the Russians after winning in Ukraine will take a few years to get their military together and then they will be ready to attack NATO led by the USA. Americans should take some time to evaluate this prediction.

Popular

There is a process underway to remove Trump from the ballot in Maine and Colorado. This process may or may not interfere with election depending on the state. Since all states but Maine and Nebraska have winner take all it would not matter if Trump were not on the ballot in states like California and New York. Winner takes all means just that. In California, which is solidly democratic, the winner of the popular vote gets all the electoral votes so it wouldn't matter if Trump were not on the ballot. In the 2016 election Hillary won the popular vote by 2.9 million but she won the California popular vote by 4.3 million so California alone accounted for her popular win.

Nuclear

Back in the 50's and 60's when the economy was booming, certain forward thinking people realized that there would be a massive increase in the need for power. One of the more famous environmental groups the Sierra Club pushed for nuclear power as it represented clean power that would not destroy the environment. They voted overwhelming in favor of the Diablo Canyon nuclear power plant. One of the members was so upset with this that he left and formed a new group. He learned his lesson well and realized he could not defeat nuclear using an environment argument so he decided to use fear. He set about conflicting atomic bombs with atomic power and he persuaded a number of important people and groups to go along with him. They were so successful that the great promise of nuclear power was side tracked and instead of building hundreds of new plants the country began to look upon nuclear power as too dangerous and they won the day. Many of these people are in the wind and solar camp but a goodly number are in the camp that wants to limit the population and this policy is referred to as the Great Reset. Their goal is to get people to use less energy and to have fewer children. They may have some success with the latter but good luck on the former.

Economy

As we move into the election 24 season the news is filled with dread. So much of the daily news is about politics that it drowns out other aspects of life and thus the dread. People forget that in just over four years Trump and Biden will be gone from the scene and the news will shift. Once people realize that the elections did not result in the end of the world they will reevaluate their world picture. Their new view of things will be influenced by the economy which will be growing rapidly. New high paying jobs along with wage/price inflation will overtake politics as the big news items of the day. New infrastructure projects along with new industrial/manufacturing facilities will combine with new technologies to bring about the fastest economic growth in history. The knowledge that young workers have gained using their I pads and I phones will help them to take on the new jobs which will be running automatic operations. In time the increase in productivity will offset the inflation and the economy will settle down and the standard of living will rise for all. The governments main business will be reducing the wealth gap which will be aided by the wealth increase in the lower income groups.

Leader

Where is a world leader when you need one. There is an opportunity coming if the senate aid bill passes. The US can publicly send the $14 billion to Israel and privately tell the Israeli's that they will be getting no more help. Israel can wait a few weeks and announce that Hamas has been weakened to the point where Israel is no longer threatened and Israel will begin to withdraw troops. The US can publicly announce the $65 billion in aid to Ukraine and privately let NATO know that there will be no more aid forthcoming. NATO must quietly negotiate a peace agreement with Putin. This means no more death and destruction in Palestine and Ukraine. It means opening the Black Sea to grain shipments to prevent famine in Sub Sarah Africa. It means lower energy cost for the world. It means open ocean trade routes. It means a massive rebuilding in Ukraine and Palestine. It means the world will be at peace while all nations have the chance to adjust to deglobalization. It takes one leader.

Border

Many people believe that the best way to tackle the problem of climate change is to use all available sources. On the top of this list should be nuclear and on the bottom carbon capture. Carbon capture reminds people of the way the border situation is being handled. Just this week the senate authorized $20 billion for the border to increase the number of people and facilities to deal with the influx of migrants. Instead of producing CO2 and then collecting CO2 why not produce less. Instead of setting up to deal with more migrants how about bringing in fewer migrants.

Ukraine

The US has spent $113 billion on the war in Ukraine and this week the senate approved $60 billion more. According to the New York Times the Ukrainians have lost 70,000 lives and 100,000 wounded by April of 2023. As of September 1, 2023 the total documented damage to Ukraine has reached $151 billion. This is after two years and it looks like things are going to be prolonged well into the future. Biden says we will stay as long as it takes.

DNC

When Jimmy Carter ran for president he was challenged in a number of primary debates by Ted Kennedy. This time Robert Kennedy is challenging Joe Biden but the DNC is not permitting any debates. This is the same DNC that boxed out Bernie Sanders when they rigged the process. This is not democracy but rather rule by insiders. It is an example of how bureaucrats are running the country by going around the votes.

Power

There is a growing group of voters who see the bureaucracy as having too much power, that the bureaucrats represent the power behind the throne. This power has grown steadily since the 1960's and is now vulnerable. Their power is fortified by the press, Hollywood, Silicon Valley, the military industrial complex and elected officials in both parties. Polls show that trust in these groups is at a low point and they are ripe to bring down. It will not happen with one administration but that could be the start. The voters see how they have been relegated to the back bench and are ready to take back power at the ballot box. Trump is the one candidate who is not part of the establishment and has the best chance to clean house. One of the best moves he could make would be to chose Tulsi Gabbard as VP. He could give her the assignment of removing the bureaucrats who owe their existence to the establishment and replacing them with people who are loyal to the voters. Her military experience taught her the downside of war and how companies like Halliburton profit from war and how their profits are used to influence government. She could close the revolving door between the regulators and regulated.

Realism

The liberal view of the world is founded on three principals. First is that democracies are less likely to wage war against one another, second that free trade makes countries economically dependent on one another and they won't declare war because the don't want to disrupt their economies and third they prefer international institutions like the UN to set some ground rules about war. The combination of these three items has at their roots the idea of prosperity. Conservatives are founded on the principal of realism and they fall into two camps. There are structural realist and human nature realist. The structural realist is offensive and the human nature realist is defensive but both are motivated by security sometimes seen as survival. The structural realist believes that any country will try to expand its power if it believes the cost is low and the reward is high. Human nature is a starting point for classical political realism. Defensive realists view human beings as inherently egoistic and self-interested to the extent that self-interest overcomes moral principles. When prosperity and security (survival) come into conflict, survival wins. Russia felt that the expansion into Ukraine threatened their survival and Israel felt that Hamas threatened their survival. When the US went into Vietnam it was defensive realism and meant to curtail the domino effect of communism. A practical way to understand the liberal view was expressed by Rodney King in the LA riots when he asked the question, why can't we all just get along.

Accords

One of the accomplishment of the Trump administration was the Abraham Accords where the US coordinated a series of treaties between Israel and UAE, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco to normalize relations. They then joined Egypt and Jordan who already had friendly relations with Israel and the next step was to bring Saudi Arabia on board. This plan was ignored by Biden when he came into office and it sat on the back burner for three years. Now that war has broken out this plan is important. The Saudis want to join because it will bring with it the protection of the US and they fear that Iran will take over their oil fields. On the surface this looks just like another anti Trump action or in this case lack of action. Many have suggested that Iran pushed Hamas to attack Israel to derail the deal with the Saudies. There is evidence to suggest that this war could have been avoided if the Saudies had joined the Accords.

Abortion

The reasons for abortion are varied. 40% say they cannot afford a child. 36% say they were not emotionally of financially ready for a baby 33% say they did not have a stable relationship with their partner. 20% say they needed to focus on their other children 20% say the timing would interfere with future opportunities and goals 19% say they were emotionally or mentally unprepared for a baby 12% say they were concerned about health related concerns 12% say they could not provide the kind of life a child deserves. 7% say they lack the maturity to have a child 5% say they were influenced by family and friends If there are medical reasons like the health of the child or mother this would be different than the above reasons which are financial and emotional. It is becoming more prevalent to abort Downs babies. Is this a slippery slope. As technology progresses and prenatal test are able to determine other factors like height, IQ, athletic ability and personality will this increase the reasons for abortion.

Border

Trump instigated a number of executive orders that resulted in securing the border. This is an article from CBS News on Febrary 1. 2024. Mr. Biden has the legal authority to reinstate the border policies implemented by former President Donald Trump that he ended, since they were based on proclamations, regulations and international agreements.

Policy

What is meant when people say Trump ran against the establishment. The American foreign policy for decades was promoted by both republicans and democrats. It was best described as trying to make other countries into liberal democracies by using free trade along with joining international organizations. American leaders were happy to use the US navy to protect the worlds oceans to encourage free trade. The were willing to share power with the UN, WHO, WTO and form treaties with countries based on trade. Many even suggested that the Supreme Court use precedent set by the World Court. This was American foreign policy in the post war world. As a result the average worker watched manufacturing jobs disappear and these workers were placated with low priced goods made abroad. Trump campaigned against this global policy and people began to understand why they had not gotten a real raise in their income for 40 years. They sat idly by watching the rich get richer and wondered if anyone was on their side. Even liberals who believed in helping the working man were unaware that the foreign polices they promoted were at the expense of the working man. This global policy was so entrenched that all institutions were involved. The military industrial complex, the universities, the press and they were joined by social media and all became a part of this global think. Trump was able to tap into this disillusionment by the working people and the ones who voted for Obama switched to Trump. When Trump said make America great again he was running against the status quo and they didn't like it one bit. They could see their whole world being turned up side down which meant loss of power, the power they worked years to acquire. They reacted not by challenging Trump policies but by personal attacks and the same thing is happening today.