Thursday, February 22, 2024

Middle East

As the world moves away from globalization the United States must make a decision as to which way it wants to go. Most countries will not have this option because they are dependent on Middle East oil. The US went from being the largest importer of oil in 1990 to largest exporter of oil in 2020 as a result of shale oil. The rest of Europe and Asia are still depending on oil from the Middle East. If the US decides to stay and help Europe and Asia, they will continue to influence the Middle East as they are doing now in trying to keep the Suez open. That is option one. If the US decided to let the rest of the world take care of itself then it becomes a revival of the Monroe Doctrine. The US can still help Europe without helping Asia, more specifically China, by sending natural gas and oil to Europe and letting Asia deal with the Persian Gulf. If oil from the Gulf is disrupted China does not have the naval power to intervene and will suffer an economic collapse which some say is already underway. Japan has sided with the US by investing in American and, like Europe, can expect oil imports from the US. Other Asian countries like Vietnam, South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore will look to having good relations with the US to maintain oil supplies. At this point America is just idling while the world waits to see which way it will go. The end of the war in Ukraine will help all countries by opening up oil exports from Russia. This will also release the huge grain supplies from Russia and Ukraine and prevent starvation in Sub Sahara Africa.

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