Covid stimulus

Last April congress passed the first Covid stimulus and each taxpayer who earned less than $75,000 received $1,200. This money should have been targeted to people who lost their jobs because of Covid and each person could have received three times as much. We now have the second Covid stimulus and it will go to many who never lost any income do to the Covid including government employees and retirees. If you take out the politics congress could have passed a second stimulus last summer with money going to those who lost their jobs. It could have been a stand alone bill but congress decided to fight over who would get the credit which is the standard M.O. for congress. Meanwhile people who needed these funds were left high and dry for the past 6 months and of course congress people have been getting their pay all along.

The new rich

The big complaint about free market capitalism is wealth inequality. For many this makes America seem like some evil country that needs to be over thrown and replaced with a system that is more fair. The solution favored by many is to take the money away from the wealthy and the arguments are about how to do it. This leaves the other side of the equation left untouched. Would a better approach be to find ways to add more wealth to those who are not rich. It feels like some would be more comfortable if everyone were poor as long as it was everyone. This is a feeling that many recall from the depression when they say we were poor but so was everyone else. A better plan is to place the emphasis on growing the economy and providing better jobs for working people. Release the entrepreneurs to use their creativity to create new business and if they make a lot of money so be it. The many young whiz kids who become billionaires are somehow depicted as cheaters. Apple has 90,000 employees with an additional 2.4 million in their supply chain. Amazon has 800,000 employees. Most of the jobs in the US today were not here 50 years ago. How many new jobs will there be in 50 years.

Roll out vaccine

Democrats are now saying that the roll out of the vaccine is too slow. According to them the roll out would not even start for a year since the vaccine would not be available for a another year. Recall when the virus first hit these same people said we can't blame Trump for the virus but we can blame him for the way he handled it and they did so. With the benefit of hindsight their solution to the virus was to do everything that Trump did but do it faster along with wear more mask. California has been a leader in all things that the democrats wanted and they are in dire straights. It is oh so easy to second guess especially if your motive is to put down the other side. It is always the same. Put party ahead of country. The congress did nothing for the people who were laid off all summer and fall while each side blamed the other for the inaction. Gallop poll on 12-15 shows an 18% approval for congress.

Economies

In the 200 plus years since the industrial revolution the world has progressed more than the 5,000 years of recorded history. The mechanization of production in conjunction with free market capitalism has brought better lives to billions even though the population has increased from one billion to seven billion. During this transition time many governments tried socialism and it failed every time. The years between 1950 and 1970 are referred to as the golden age of capitalism as countries around the world moved toward free market economies. Many people are upset with today's situation and the number one complaint is that some people have too much.

Solyndra

In the 7 years between 2008 and 2015 over 100 solar panel companies that received government loans went bankrupt and each one made campaign contributions before they closed. In addition many of the original investors walked off with a profit. The most famous example is Solyndra which received a $535 million loan guarantee and this was paid by the government when the company filed for bankruptcy. While solar is sold as a replacement for fossil fuels it is used as a conduit to campaigns. The use of other more viable sources to produce electric power, sources like natural gas, methane hydrate and thorium nuke plants are not discussed because there is no direct path back to campaigns. The idea of a carbon tax is in the news because this would bring in money to the government. It would be a transfer from consumers via increased utility cost to the government because the companies would pay the carbon tax by increasing the electric rates. Recall when President Obama said, "your utility rates will necessarily sky rocket". As long as politics is determining the road to climate change this deliberate misdirection will continue.

600 or 2000

In the first covid relief plan 2.8 million people received a $1,200 check at a cost of $3.2 billion dollars. In the second bill just past this is reduced to $600 per person. This bill was combined with the omnibus spending bill which was needed to keep the government funded and it contained the usual bridge to no where pork. It used the covid plan to pass all of the pork. If they had left the covid bill pass on its own merits they could have by passed the arguments and had this bill finished months ago. This is typical where special interest items are put in a bill containing items that most people want. Even right now Trump has said he wants to increase the $600 to $2,000 if they will remove the pork from the Omnibus bill but Pelosi says she will pass Trumps change as a stand alone bill so she can keep all of the pork in the Omnibus bill.

Virus

Senator Schumer was on TV today talking about the virus and he said that Biden will take action and replace a man who did nothing to stop the virus. Trump canceled all fights from China on January 31st and was accused of being xenophobic, on February 27 he appointed VP Pence to head up the war on the virus, on March 12th he suspended all flights from Europe, on March 26th he signs $9 billion covid response bill, on April 16th $483 million to Moderna for vaccine, on April 29 Operation Warp Speed begins to create a virus and the government has spent over $6 trillion dollars so far fighting the virus. Democrats often equate how much you care about an issue by how much you are willing to spend and $6 trillion is a lot of care. After Schumer, a democratic congressman Jim Clyburn, who is a smart guy, was interviewed and when asked if he thought the vaccine was a good thing and he said it was but it would have been produced faster if Trump had gotten out of the way.

Power to the people

What happened under Trump was happening all over the industrialized world. The people were fed up with the experts running their lives and they voted for change. A good example is what happened in England. They voted to leave the European Union. The groups that wanted to stay were the people who were doing well, the establishment along with big business. The same thing was happening in the US and now it looks like a return to the pre-Trump years. Business will once again profit by sending jobs overseas and the blue collar workers will pay the price. The power will remain in the hands of the powerful and the people will just have to adjust. This all occurred without the average person knowing what was going on because the news was all about Trumps personality quirks instead of what his policies were. Changing NAFTA, standing up to China, bringing jobs back home, getting out of agreements like the Paris Accords, the TPP, challenging the United Nations and the WTO were all ways to help the working class. The power to control the lives of the working people had shifted to government and business and the next move was to move the power to international groups by making international treaties. Just like England was getting their marching orders from Brussels, the US will be catering to these world wide agreements. The further away from the people the power goes the more the people will be left to fend for themselves. The workers will have to organize and fight against those in control but this time it appears that the press will be on the side of the elites.

Unions

Since Biden did not say much about his agenda during the campaign, supposedly because he was housebound due to the virus, we are now getting our first clear look as to what to expect. This look comes to us via the cabinet he is selecting and it appears that we are going to return to the status quo that existed in the thirty plus years before Trump. This means that the blue collar working people will continue to lose ground as more manufacturing moves out of the country. These workers can hope to make a come back in the next election but that also would be returning to the status quo of yesteryear. The mistake these workers have been making is assuming they could get help through government but that appears to be a hill to difficult to climb. They must decide as a group to take things into their own hands and use the strength of unions to fight for their rights. What is needed is a resurgence in union membership, something that has been on the decline, at least in the private sector, for forty years. It does not help to complain about the salaries of CEO's if the government and business are in cahoots with one another. The current union leadership has been co-opted as witnessed by the passage of NAFTA by a democratic administration and talks about joining the TTP while giving power to the WTO. The way to get Jeff Bezo's attention is not to talk about a wealth tax which must include the cooperation of the business/government partnership but to form a union and demand better benefits. It is up to the workers to join forces and fight for their rights. They did it in the past and they can do it again.

Thorium

Andrew Yang, son of immigrants from Taiwan, was a lawyer turned businessman who became a millionaire before age 35. He came to national attention when he ran for president in 2016. As a part of his platform he suggested using thorium to produce carbon free electric power. This did not get much attention since it didn't have a pathway to return government money to politicians like solar and wind. People are fearful of nuclear power because of the possibility of reactor meltdown but thorium cannot meltdown. If power is lost in a thorium reactor the reactor shuts itself down. In addition thorium reactors produce far less waste that is far less dangerous. Thorium reactors can use up the spent fuel from uranium reactors which is stored in various places around the country. The mining of thorium produces by products of rare earth metals which are needed for high tech equipment used in wind and solar. Those who promote the use of fossil fuels and wind and solar oppose thorium as they see it as competition.

China policy

Foreign policy under the Biden administration is up in the air at this time especially with relations with China. They will likely take a strong stance against China's policies on human rights at least with words but there is not much in action that can be done. There will be pressure from big business, to remove the tariffs that Trump imposed on China and this will be some action that might be taken. Besides the big corps many officials, elected and not, have ties with China and this has been going on for many years. These officials profit from their relationships and do not want this jeopardized. There will be some pressure to bring home the production of medical supplies but basic manufacturing will likely stay in China as US jobs continue to move overseas.

Wages

Many people see how the country is divided and blame Trump because he is president. This division started before Trump when voters in England decided to leave the European Union. It was like other European countries where the working people were upset with the establishment. The blue collar working class in America watched their jobs go overseas and no one cared. They saw a flow of immigrants coming in and competing for low wage jobs. They felt the government was more concerned about immigrants than about themselves. They were accused of being prejudiced but in fact if these new immigrants had been raising wages they would have been all for it. It was not skin color but wages. They watched mostly the sons and daughters of blue collar workers fight the wars that seem to profit big defense contractors. They come back with injuries and the VA seems not to care. Social Media promotes political conflict where people get their news. Republicans watch their sites and democrats watch theirs and this adds to the conflict. These people got fed up and voted for Sanders or Trump because they were crying out for help, for someone to notice their plight. Unless something is done to help this group they will be back next election in even larger numbers.

Merit

A good argument can be made that in a free market economy each person can succeed according to their ability. This assumes that each person has an equal opportunity but that is not the case. Children from wealthy families have an advantage. There are more students in Ivy League schools from the top one percent of wealthy families than the remaining 99% of families. This can be corrected by adjusting admission standards and that is currently happening. Sometimes things are not that simple. If a young man is born Black it often means from a low income family and that is more difficult to correct. Does the government just give his family money or does the university adjust its entrance requirements. In the National Basketball Association 80% of the players are Black. It appears that they have natural talents in this area. Adjusting for this discrepancy would be very difficult. Should the NBA limit the number of Black players to 12% which is what Blacks represent in the general population. 42% of students are MIT are Asian Americans. Should this be adjusted down to the 5% they represent in the population. Does competition, by its nature, breed inequality. When changes are made to compensate for unequal opportunity by adjusting results serious problems arise. When one person has the talent to earn lots of money should some of that be taken from them. Going down this path begs the question as to who decides how to adjust for opportunity and for results.

Juan buys bonds

Currency is traded on the foreign exchange market called the Forex. The Chinese Central Bank prints up Juan and uses that to buy dollars on the open market. This drives up the cost of the dollar and lowers the cost of Juan and this gives China an advantage in trade which leads to a favorable balance of trade for China and an unfavorable balance of trade for the US. In doing this China accumulates a large supply of dollars and when the US government wants to borrow money the Fed sells bonds and China using their supply of dollars buys US bonds. In this process China becomes a major buyer and this helps the Fed to sell bonds at a lower interest rate which saves the government a lot of money. The more buyers there are the lower the rate on the bonds. This lower rate effects not just government bonds but other interest rates like home mortgage loans. In addition the price of goods made in China and shipped here are lower for US consumers. While all of this seems like a win the down side is that the blue collar workers have traded their good jobs for low cost TV's at Walmart.

Islam today

Revelation over reason is a key phrase that explains the situation that Islam is facing today. From about 700 AD to 1500 AD Islamic scientist flourished and birthed new ideas about medicine, mathematics and other sciences but that ended when religion took over. Because of many changes including the use of politics, the religious people gained power over the leadership and Islam closed its doors to the outside world and concentrated on the Koran and lived their lives according to the strict interpretation of this holy book. The west faced a similar situation with the bible but chose a path that aligns science with religion allowing both a degree of independence from one another. This is best illustrated by the separation clause in the US constitution. There remains some fundamental arguments regarding literal interpretation of the bible but these have not placed any constraints on scientific advancements. Hopefully the Bible doesn't forbid scientific investigation as the Roman Church feared during the aptly named dark ages. Science has made some serious blunders over the years but that should not limit future investigations.

Mortgage crisis

The governments main responsibility in a free market economy is to minimize corruption but sometimes the government tries to do more and one example is what became the mortgage crisis of 2008. Before the 1970's banks would assess the credit worthiness of a mortgage applicant and offer loans accordingly. There were rules to follow, things like down payment and income. This meant that the rate for loans was determined by the willingness of banks to loan and the ability of the borrowers to pay back the loan. This led to discrimination against lower income people and often times these were minorities. The government then decided to intervene in the process which distorted the loan rates. In 1997 they passed the Community Reinvestment Act which forced banks to offer more risky loans. This allowed for more loans but not enough to satisfy the government so in 1994 they passed the Interstate Banking Act to encourage riskier loans. Still not satisfied in 1996 HUD started requiring that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to offer 40% of loans to low income groups. In 1997 the Taxpayer Relief Act removed the tax on the gain of the sale of a home. Starting in 2000 the Federal Reserve Bank lowered interest rates to historic lows which further encouraged home loans. Since Fannie and Freddie are semi government entities the government would back up any losses. This meant that banks could make high risk loans and keep the profits but any losses would be passed on to Fannie Mae which means passed on to the taxpayers and this is what happened as the banks were bailed out and the people lost their homes. The government is currently considering interceding in the student loan bubble. Will this result in unintended consequences?

5G

The latest advancement in communications is called 5G and a Chinese company Huawei wanted to spread their version around the world but they were challenged by the US and now most companies will be moving away from Huawei and toward western countries for their service. It was claimed and with good reason that Huawei would use this service to spy since Chinese companies are aligned with the communist government. While this did not get much news coverage it was a win for the US and the rest of the free world.

Warp speed

The latest advancement in communications is called 5G and a Chinese company Huawei wanted to spread their version around the world but they were challenged by the US and now most companies will be moving away from Huawei and toward western countries for their service. It was claimed and with good reason that Huawei would use this service to spy since Chinese companies are aligned with the communist government. While this did not get much news coverage it was a win for the US and the rest of the free world.

Warp speed

Recent activities have offered a clear example of the difference between how business operates compared to government. While millions of people suffered waiting for relief from the pain of covid, congress dithered and as usual both parties blame the other side. Contrast that to the way Trump has marshaled the forces of private industry to develop the vaccine. As a businessman this was his first impulse. Would other politicians come up with Operation Warp Speed? Was WW2 the last time something like this happened?

Lower CO2

As the US production of oil and gas rises it causes a couple of major changes across the globe. The first is political. When the US placed restrictions on Iran this reduced their oil exports by 90%. This was only possible because US oil production increased enough to offset any price hikes. The second change has to do with natural gas production. The price of natural declined not only in the US but around the world because the US became a net exported of natural gas. This helped Europe where Russia has a monopoly on natural gas production. Lower cost for natural gas encourages countries in Asia and Africa to use more natural gas which many times means less coal. This causes lower CO2 production. Ironically the use of fracking is helping in the goals of climate change.

Mortgage crisis

The governments main responsibility in a free market economy is to minimize corruption but sometimes the government tries to do more and one example is what became the mortgage crisis of 2008. Before the 1970's banks would assess the credit worthiness of a mortgage applicant and offer loans accordingly. There were rules to follow, things like down payment and income. This meant that the rate for loans was determined by the willingness of banks to loan and the ability of the borrowers to pay back the loan. This led to discrimination against lower income people and often times these were minorities. The government then decided to intervene in the process which distorted the loan rates. In 1997 they passed the Community Reinvestment Act which forced banks to offer more risky loans. This allowed for more loans but not enough to satisfy the government so in 1994 they passed the Interstate Banking Act to encourage riskier loans. Still not satisfied in 1996 HUD started requiring that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to offer 40% of loans to low income groups. In 1997 the Taxpayer Relief Act removed the tax on the gain of the sale of a home. Starting in 2000 the Federal Reserve Bank lowered interest rates to historic lows which further encouraged home loans. Since Fannie and Freddie are semi government entities the government would back up any losses. This meant that banks could make high risk loans and keep the profits but any losses would be passed on to Fannie Mae which means passed on to the taxpayers and this is what happened as the banks were bailed out and the people lost their homes. The government is currently considering interceding in the student loan bubble. Will this result in unintended consequences?

5G

The latest advancement in communications is called 5G and a Chinese company Huawei wanted to spread their version around the world but they were challenged by the US and now most companies will be moving away from Huawei and toward western countries for their service. It was claimed and with good reason that Huawei would use this service to spy since Chinese companies are aligned with the communist government. While this did not get much news coverage it was a win for the US and the rest of the free world.

Warp speed

Recent activities have offered a clear example of the difference between how business operates compared to government. While millions of people suffered waiting for relief from the pain of covid, congress dithered and as usual both parties blame the other side. Contrast that to the way Trump has marshaled the forces of private industry to develop the vaccine. As a businessman this was his first impulse. Would other politicians come up with Operation Warp Speed? Was WW2 the last time something like this happened?

Lower CO2

As the US production of oil and gas rises it causes a couple of major changes across the globe. The first is political. When the US placed restrictions on Iran this reduced their oil exports by 90%. This was only possible because US oil production increased enough to offset any price hikes. The second change has to do with natural gas production. The price of natural declined not only in the US but around the world because the US became a net exported of natural gas. This helped Europe where Russia has a monopoly on natural gas production. Lower cost for natural gas encourages countries in Asia and Africa to use more natural gas which many times means less coal. This causes lower CO2 production. Ironically the use of fracking is helping in the goals of climate change.

Mortgage crisis

The real estate crisis of 2008 began when people realized that the mortgage backed securities could not be evaluated properly and were likely worth much less than they thought. This led to a collapse in the market. The question then arose as to why were people investing in a products when there was no way to determine its worth. There value was based on enthusiasm for the product. There is a similar situation going on today. Tesla has $45 billion in assets and the current value of its stock is $540 billion and people are buying it without regards to what is there to back up the company. This is what happened with mortgage backed securities. A bundle of mortgages worth continuing houses worth $10 million dollars might be sold for $100 million. This is the expected result of people who are buying products that they don't know the value. When a person buys Tesle they know its worth and are still willing to pay ten time that.

Trust

Polls show a steady decline in the public trust in the media. In 1972 the trust was at 72% but this was followed by downward slide. By 1997 it had fallen to 53% and in 2016 it was 32%. When Trump came on the scene the drop in trust continued. This mistrust is not limited to politics as most institutions, other than the military, are suffering from the same mistrust. Trust in government has dropped from 75% in 1960 to 25% in 2015. This has people concentrating on what is wrong with America and if you look you can find plenty. If you go a step further and compare the US with other countries things look much better and that is why so many around the world would like to move here. Like so many things in life it comes down to attitude. Recall what Flip Wilsons, Geraldine said, what you see is what you get.

Equal results

As WW 2 ended, Europe lay in ruins and the two surviving countries Russia and the United States, watched and waited. The Soviets saw the starving people as a group ripe for the promises of communism and took steps to spread this doctrine by stirring up discontent while the US moved to send aid. Half of Europe went communist and the other half stayed as free market economies. Over the next 40 plus years these two types of government proceeded along different pathways and in the end the communist government failed while Western Europe thrived and eventually won the cold war. The early successes of the communist were led by the young people in the war torn countries as they believed in the equality promised by the communist. The United States today is facing a similar situation with polls showing that the young people believe that socialism will provide equality. The promise of equal results is a powerful drug for those who cringe when they see billionaires in a country where many work for minimum wage. The siren song of, from each according to his ability to each according to his needs, touches the hearts of the youth.

Scientific method

A current new headline is listen to the science. This has been the chant over climate change for years and it is the reason not much has been done to solve the problem of climate change. A scientist will look for all options when facing a challenge and to see only one solution while ignoring other possible solutions is to disregard the scientific method. This method finds its strength in looking for answers without prejudice. The leading scientists today have been co-opted by politics in conjunction with the press. Bush and Obama both said they would look at all options but that has not happened. There is little or no mention of using natural gas for transportation or building thorium power plants. The added advantage is that mining thorium produces rare earth metals as a by-product which can aid in the wind solar business. It is a win win about which most people have no knowledge.

Fighting covid

The first death from covid in the US was on January 20, 2020. This man just returned from Wuhan, China. On January 29, the White House announced a task force to study covid. On January 30, Trump restricts travel from China. On January 31, HHS declares public health emergency. On February 24, Trump asks congress for $2.5 billion to pay for vaccine development and protective equipment. February 26, Trump tags Pence to head the fight against covid. On February 29 the first case of covid contacted in the US. March 6, Trump signs bill for $8.3 billion to fight covid. March 11, Trump restricts travel from Europe and England. March13, Trump declares national emergency. March 18, Trump signs the second covid relief bill for $100 billion. March 26 death toll hits 1,000.

New rich

In 2008 two men both age 27 had some room to rent and they set up an online rental system for travelers. They called it AirBnB. They don't have anything to do with the rental space, they just take a small commission for those who use their site. Today millions of renters are making money off their unused space and millions of travelers and getting low priced lodging. Today this company goes public for an estimated $47 billion dollars. In 2013 three Asian American students in their late 20's founded Doordash a company that offers home food delivery. They got $700 million from venture capitalist and last week went public for $38 billion dollars. Millions of people now save time by not having to go out to shop for food. Multiple deliveries are made on each trip saving fuel cost. Will these young men now use their wealth to retire and just spend the rest of their lives buying toys to play with or will they use their entrepreneurial skills to start new businesses?

The real power

When a new administration takes office new officials take office. There are about 4,000 jobs that change with about 60 being significant with the new president but there are over 2 million federal government employees who stay on through different administrations. These are referred to a career employees and they each have their own ways of working within the system. These people have daily contact with various businesses and industries that work with the federal government on a whole series of projects. These same people are often the unidentified sources that appear in news stories and many thousands of these people have top secret clearance to deal with groups outside the government. These bureaucrats and their confederates in private industry keep the government functioning properly as one administration replaces another. In other words this whole group of lifetime workers represent the power behind the throne and they probably total around 4 million. Politicians are often accused of putting party ahead of country but these non-elected employees are likely to put their careers ahead of country. It is this large group that can be considered the deep state. The one group that acts as the glue that holds the whole thing together are the lobbyist. Any elected official that tries to challenge the authority of this group will likely be attacked from all sides and quickly be neutered. Recently Senator Schumer issued a warning to his friends saying they best not get on the wrong side of the NIA when he said, "Let me tell you, you take on the intelligence community, they have six ways from Sunday at getting back at you". This illustrates where the real power lies.

Deep state

Eisenhower famously warned about the dangers inherent in the military industrial complex and he was right. Overtime this duo expanded their power by joining forces with big corporations and big government. The big government part was particularly troubling because it was not the elected officials who became part of the cabal but rather the non elected people we call bureaucrats. In 2016 Mike Lofgren wrote a book called, An Anatomy Of The Deep State" and in this book he exposed how this powerful group had taken control of the country. Lofgren points out that it is not republicans or democrats that control this but a secret unwritten agreement between the national security community, Wall Street and Silicon Valley. When Trump was elected he took this on and was immediately attacked from all sides. This group uses the strategy of keeping political parties at war with one another to cover their misdeeds and the public, along with the press, falls dutifully in line. It is easy to turn the heads of those who have a vested interest in politics. The stronger they feel about politics the easier it is to control them. One simple proof of this is what is called the teenage defense. If your party does some dastardly deed all you have to do is find a similar incidence in the other party and all is forgotten, as in, Mom everyone is doing it. If Trump hadn't had such a controversial personality there is a chance he could have uncovered much of the deep state. The phrase deep state was attributed to Trump so as to disparage the whole concept and it worked even though the phrase preceded Trump.

More on thorium

Thorium nuke powered plants not only produce far less nuclear waste, they are easier and cheaper to build and can be designed to produce hydrogen which can be combined with CO2 to make fuels to replace fossil fuel without increasing the CO2 in the atmosphere. All electric power will be produced carbon free and a carbon free source of fuel for planes, trains and trucks will be available. There will be no net increase in CO2 from transportation and a net decrease in CO2 by switching to nuclear power plants instead of coal and gas. This would solve the climate change problem and according to some, save the world.

Thorium or climate change

Nuclear power plants came on in the late 50's and based on the technology at the time used water to cool the reactor core and that is how all plants operate today. The three accidents that have occurred in the past 70 years have all been caused by using water as the coolant. In a loss of power to the facility the pumps no longer operate and the cooling is shut down. Today's new technology using thorium as the fuel and molted salt at the coolant provide a safe shutdown in the loss of power. The molted salt as it cools solidifies and becomes its own seal. All new plants should use this newer safer technology and older plants should be retired and replaced as soon as possible. The same people who say that the world as we know it will end in a few short years are the people who oppose this change to thorium. Nuclear reactors with old technology have produced one accident in the United States since 1958 and faced with the pending destruction of climate change these people refuse to go to thorium power. Do they really believe that climate change is as threatening as they say?

Juan vs dollar

Money is sold on the open market like any other commodity. If the demand for the dollar goes up the price of the dollar goes up. Simple supply and demand. Say the dollar is worth 6 Juan. If a gizzmo in China cost 6 Juan and I want to buy one I pay one US dollar for it. If one smizzmo in the US sells for 1 dollar a Chinese merchant can buy one for 6 juan. Now China sells Juan on the open market and it drives the cost down. Meanwhile China buys dollars on the open market and it drives the cost up. So now 4 Juan is worth one dollar. People buy more because the price is lower. China exports gizzmos to the US and people buy them at 4 Juan rather than 6 Juan so sales increase. US exports smizzmos to China and the people buy 4 for a dollar instead of 6 for a dollar so they buy less. Sales decrease when the price goes up. The currency for most countries depends on the open market price which is determined by supply and demand. China manipulates the open market price by buying and selling its own currency while at the same time buying and selling dollars. About 20 countries, most notably China, have engaged in such practices over the past decade at an annual rate that has averaged $1 trillion in recent years. The U.S. trade deficit has been several hundred billion dollars a year higher as a result and we lost several million additional jobs during the Great Recession.

Payoff debt

Senators Warren and Sanders have suggested the if the government would pay off student loans this would stimulate economic growth and I agree. However! We are constantly told that going to college means a higher life time income and I agree. Therefore! How about paying off private debt for people who never went to college, things like credit cards and car loans. That too would stimulate the economy but it would help lower educated, lower income people who will not get the future pay increases that the students will get. These are the people who witnessed their good paying manufacturing jobs disappear while they were working hard to put their kids through college. Doesn't that sound more equitable.

Thorium power plants

A new report from the EPA estimates that over 100,000 people die each year from air pollution caused by burning fossil fuels. The United States has been using nuclear power plants to produce pollution free electricity since 1958 and has had one accident at Three Mile Island from which no one was injured or died. Most of the inherent dangers from nuke plants come from the use of uranium as a fuel and that can be eliminated by using thorium instead of uranium. Thorium is safer and less expensive. The plant is safer because it doesn't need high pressure water to cool and if the power is lost it shuts down by itself. The bi-products are fewer in number and decay more rapidly. The use of thorium could also help solve the shortage of rare earth metals because thorium is a bi-product of rare earth mines. Thus it is safer and easier to mine than uranium and has much more energy per pound than uranium. The only reason uranium was used at the start was that uranium plants product bi-products than can be used to make nuke bombs and that is why the government financed these plant. You cannot make bombs from thorium. There is no air or water pollution from thorium power plants.

Rare metals today

In 2010 and several times since China has cut the supply of rare earth metals and since they control 90% of the worlds supply this has resulted in shortages and price hikes. In recent times China's need for these metals has grown to the point where they will no longer have excess supplies and exports may stop completely. They even warned that world that they would be using most of their own production and said they would put China first. While there is a lot of talk about the US getting their own supply not much has been done. It takes many years to get a mine going from scratch but there is a mine in California that went bankrupt and could be reopened and get production underway quickly but still no action. It represents a conundrum to environmentalist who believe that mining is bad but need these metals for wind mills and solar panels. It comes back to what business always faces and that is risk/return. While these people dither away the hours with endless meetings the problem gets more critical. These think tank experts always have trouble making a decision.

Thorium

China produces over 90% of rare earth metals which are used in electronics. Most modern military equipment require these metals so the national defense is threatened by not having a domestic supply. The refining of these metals requires many toxic chemicals but that is not the stumbling block as these chemicals can be controlled. The problem is caused by a by product metal called thorium. Rare earths are found mixed with thorium and thorium is radioactive. One solution to this problem is to use thorium in nuclear power plants. It is better than uranium and safer. It has fewer contaminated bi-products and is more prevalent in nature. The only drawback is that it does not produce plutonium as a by product which the government wants for nuke bombs. It is not necessary to set up a separate rare earth mine as most mines produce a bi-product that contains rare earths. These bi-products can be the raw material needed to produce rare earths. There are many ore mines throughout the western states that could be the sites of rare earth mines. The government seems unable to act and thus China continues to hold the advantage.

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At one time in the past, I foolishly suggested that all high school and college sports be inter mural instead of inter school. This way students would all compete instead of an elite few. Cost for transporting students from school to school would be eliminated and travel time saved. I was severely castigate for making such ridiculous suggestions and quickly dropped the whole idea. Turns out that people think competition for blue ribbons is a good thing even though it created losers along with winners. This is true not only in sports but in other walks of life such as entertainment and business but there is a limit. In a free market system someone can come up with a good idea that benefits millions of people but it better not enrich the originators too much. In the last century two men, Bill Gates and Steve Jobs were responsible for the creation of millions of new good paying jobs and they were rewarded with millions of dollars. So far so good. Now comes Jeff Bezos founder of Amazon who owns $180 billion dollars in stock. This is deemed as too much for one person and ideas are presented on ways to get his stock. This change in attitude about rich people is part of the new push for socialistic ideas as presented by Bernie Sanders in the past two elections. The US could certainly take by force of law money from the rich and give it to the poor and almost everyone would be financially better off. This would be a win for some period of time but it would not last. As Margaret Thatcher once said, socialism is great until you run out of the other persons money. Going back to the sports analogy it would be like taking Patrick McHomes $50 million dollar yearly salary and giving one million to each of his 50 team mates. Sounds fair to me.

New ways

A few years ago the phrase think outside the box was used to describe ways to be different from the norm. Being normal is safe and where most people prefer to be but innovation comes from not be normal. To be different is to risk ridicule. There are many examples of abnormal behavior that resulted in people being laughed at or banished from a group but often times these same people are responsible for major changes in society. One recent example is Donald Trump. When it comes to politics he was outside the box on almost every issue and he suffered the consequences. He was an outsider who broke the norm almost everyday and was made fun of by all of the inside the box people. This is best illustrated by those who said he was un-presidential and he was but he caused people to think about politics in a new way and new ways are usually unwanted and sometimes dangerous.

Embargo

When Trump announced that the United States was energy independent and credited fracking, most Americans just yawned because they do not remember the 1973 oil embargo. In 1973 Egypt and Syria began an unprovoked attack against Israel. Israel retaliated with arms supplied by the United States and in 19 days the Arabs suffered a humiliating defeat. In response to this defeat Saudi Arabia instituted an oil embargo against the United States. The first effect was the price of gas increasing four fold and then many stations were out of gas. Long lines at gas stations were the norm and Americans who love their cars were angry and frustrated. This frustration is a minor problem compared to the threat posed to the national defense of the country. This threat no longer exist.

Change mind

Dr Fouci has come under attack for changing his mind on schools. A good scientist will answer every question with the preface, to the best of our knowledge this is what we think. When new information presents itself the investigator is obligated to take that into account. When I was in school there were laws in science but quantum mechanics called into question those laws. It is not just science but in all intelligent decision making that when new information is presented, it is only wise to reconsider previously held positions.

Hate crimes

In 2019 there were 953 anti- Jewish hate crimes in America and 176 anti- Muslim crimes. There is nothing in the news about this. The question is what if the data were reversed with Muslim crimes being 5 or 6 times more prevalent than Jewish crimes. Would that be in the news and if so why the difference. Could it be that prejudice against Muslims is a relatively new phenomenon whereas crimes against Jews have been going on for thousands of years. Does anyone care about these differences?

Unfair deficits

Long before Trump entered politics he complained about the trade deficits that adversely affected the US. To understand the impact of trade compare Germany with the US. While the US has $600 billion dollar trade deficit, Germany has a $250 billion dollar trade surplus and consider that the US has four times the population of Germany this difference is astounding. While the US runs a trillion dollar budget deficit, Germany has a budget surplus. This means the German national debt is 50% of GDP while the US is over 100% of GDP. The interest on debt is a drain on the economy and hurts the US. When Germany sells to the US there is very little import tax but when the US sells to Germany there is a large import tax. This has been going on for many years. In addition Germany spends very little on defense since they depend on the US to cover them. They don't pay their fair share to NATO and to the UN while the US pays more than a fair share.

Growth and pollution

One of the many controversies in today's world is the argument over nationalism vs globalism. There is only an argument, because certain groups see this as either or. Both of these ideas have their strong points and their weak points. The solution should be to accept the best parts of each. We can all benefit from free trade if governments do not put their finger on the scale by subsidizing certain industries. We can increase productivity if we remove tariffs. As people prosper the climate suffers. China's move into modernity began in 1980 with the opening of the free market economy. The industrialization of China moved millions out of poverty but added billions of tons of CO2 to the atmosphere. China today produces 30% of the air pollution in the world and this continues to rise as they continue to grow. The global economy allows countries like China and India to grow but it also increases pollution. A win win agreement can be reached if the US sends natural gas to Asia to replace coal. Trade will permit the world economy to grow and at the same time reduce the increase in air pollution.

World Bank

The recent discussion about making America First has put international organizations like the IMF and World Bank under a microscope. The Bank for example makes loans to underdeveloped countries to say, build up their infrastructure. It can be shown that projects like this will increase the GDP of these countries and this is true but the increase goes mostly to a select few. These few have close connections to large western corporations and that is where the profits go. The poor people get little to no benefit. The same thing occurs in the United States when we have trade with foreign countries. It increases our GDP but the profits go mostly to large corporations and not to the middle income people who have lost their jobs to cheap overseas labor. The World Bank is presented as an agency that helps poor countries and uses this altruism to promote the reason for their existence but it is all a sham. US taxpayers give billions to the World Bank and this money is circulated through various loan programs and ends up in the pockets of US corporation who are building infrastructure programs in these countries.

Size of the pie

The argument between giving public assistance vs providing jobs can be best understood by watching how business people allocate their money. If a successful business gives their profits to charity they help a certain group on a one time basis. If, on the other hand, they reinvest their profits in the business they can create new jobs which help people on a continuing basis. A good example is Amazon, a company that has never paid dividends to its investors but instead has always reinvested the profits in the business. The result is that over the past 26 years it has created 876,000 jobs. Amazon reports very little profit because it reinvests everything it earns and thus pays very little in taxes. Investors make money because Amazon is a growth stock meaning investors make money not on dividends but by selling stock that has increased in value. In the past 5 years Amazon stock has gone from $800 per share to over $3,000 per share. This is more than a 30% annual return on investment. The government can only redistribute what is in the pie but business can increase the size of the pie.

Global economy

Milton Friedman was an economist who promoted the idea of free trade and his arguments made sense but they do not allow for government financing certain businesses with the expressed goal of running the competition out of business. When the Chinese government subsidized the steel industry it allowed China to sell steel on the world market at a price below the cost of production and steel companies around the globe went out of business. For almost 50 years, under the heading of globalization, the American middle income worker has been fast disappearing using a free trade policy of shipping jobs overseas. There is something that can be done about this and it was demonstrated by Trump. When Ford announced the plan to close an American auto plant and move production to Mexico, Trump told them they had the right to do that but if they did he would place an 25% import tax on any cars made in that plant that were shipped to the United States. Ford change their plans and invested $700 million dollars in the American plant and saved 700 jobs. Ford then said in a face saving statement that they made the change for other reasons. Moving production facilities overseas has increased profits for shareholders but at the expense of workers. The workers no longer have the protection that unions provided back in the 50's and the result is they have no recourse but to watch their jobs go overseas. One of the main results of globalization is the widening gap between the disappearing middle income people and the upper income group.

FBI

Jeffrey Epstein, convicted sex offender, hanged himself in a New York prison under suspicious circumstances. The Lolita Express flight logs to Epstein’s island were published online in 2015 and include over 1500 names of rich and powerful individuals. This was a private island in the Caribbean owed by Epstein. The FBI seized computers and other evidence but that has disappeared from the news. Epstein's associate Ghislaine Maxwell was arrested and is being held in detention in New York. Some question if there is a separate set of rules for the rich and if not why has this story all but vanished from the news. When stories like this are kept quiet it leads to speculation that some people get special treatment from the authorities. This is why many feel the FBI which has had its share of problems starting with J Edgar Hoover up through, the Daniel Ellsberg papers, Watergate cover up and most recently the Mueller investigation are suspect.

Poverty and jobs

The War on Poverty began in 1964 when the nation suffered from a 19% poverty rate. The office of economic opportunity was set up to provide various programs of public assistance. This involved the redistribution of wealth and has continued to this day. The emphasis was never on self sufficiency that would come from a good job but directed toward dependency on government benefits. Over the past 50 plus years this movement toward government aid has expanded and has not achieved the anticipated results. While overall poverty rates have remained fairly constant the rate among Blacks declined from 34% to 22%. This on the surface looks like success but at what price. While other Americans who had good jobs suffered slow but steady declines in their standard of living many living on public assistance saw their dependency growing. The facts are stark. Single family moms on welfare, poor performance in schools, drug use and high crime are often quoted. Even today democrats show little interest in creating good jobs for the minorities. Biden's plans for the economy are not clear but they mostly involve more government assistance with no emphasis on good jobs. Those further left like Bernie Sanders proposed government jobs for all. His plan was to have 20 million people working on green energy jobs, things like building solar panels and wind mills. Will private sector jobs decline while government jobs increase? Will this bring about a growing economy. Other countries have tried this without much success. Will the US be the exception to the rule?

This I wrote many years ago and send to my friends this time of year A NOVEMBER MORNING WALK A November morning walk is a special event. The gray clouds hang low on the horizon. The North wind, now filled with the first chilling reminder of winter, pushes the Autumn leaves across the pavement, rolling and crackling on their way to winter graves. The trees, that only last week, were bright with red and gold, now stand partially disrobed and dull brown against the morning sky. The heated activity of the past summer has subsided, and the time for regrouping is at hand. I look inward, and wrap myself up in the warm blanket of my feelings, as I prepare to hibernate with thoughts of peace and contentment. It is my time for preventive maintenance, and proper care of the soul. When I was in the first half of life, I had not time for such foolish behavior. I did not realize the joy of resting quietly in the forest, for I was busy rubbing the sticks of ambition and materialism together, to start the fires of progress that would set the forest ablaze. As I look back upon the charred remains of all this activity, I am thankful that I didn’t burn myself out. I will cherish each day of this seemingly forgotten month, as I build up my enthusiasm for giving and forgiving in the coming year, and then as the month comes to an end, it is appropriate that it burst open with a great thanksgiving for the past year. Now is the time when I will check my moral foundation, and my spiritual working parts, so that I am properly prepared to face the challenges that lie ahead. With all things in good working order I will best be able to share my gifts with others, and experience the truth, joy and love that is my destiny.

More on Globalism

There is more evidence that Biden wants to return to globalism as he as stated he wants to get rid of the idea of putting America first. Does this mean that America will just be like other countries. Does it sound like Obama's criticism of America as being exceptional. Does it mean rejoining the Paris Accords, the TPP, the WHO, the WTO and giving more authority to the IMF and the World Bank. Will the United Nations gain more power under Biden. Will Supreme Court cases start using world cases as precedent? Do most of our citizens want America to be just another country among others or would they prefer that America be better than others. Will we run from competition and allow every country to get a trophy. Is this another case of demanding equal results? Is it another game played without keeping score?

Globalism

After the Big War the US was the super power and some felt this power should be used to make the world a better place. It got started with the way the US helped to rebuild Germany and Japan. At that time the US held 50% of the worlds wealth with only 6% of the worlds population. As this concept continued it grew into the concept of globalism. The US did not have enough money to bring the world out of poverty but by using business it was able to make a significant contribution to the poor in third world countries. By the turn of the century the US and other western countries had moved over a billion people out of poverty. In the US this was accomplished by sending manufacturing jobs to China. This allowed American companies to produce goods at low cost and this allowed American consumers to buy these low cost goods. Slowly over 30 years the good paying jobs were replaced with low cost goods and it was like the rat in the pot of water that was slowly heated until the rat died. The blue collar workers figured out what was going on and elected Trump as someone who promised to reverse this trend by bringing jobs home from China. The question we now face is will Biden continue this trend or will he go back to the days before Trump. So far his cabinet represents going back. If that happens corporations will once again have access to cheap foreign labor and the profits that go along with it. The blue collar people will trade their good jobs for everyday low prices at Walmart.

College or not

A student majoring in liberal arts can learn just as much by staying at home and reading. Typical liberal arts degrees are the study of history, literature, writing, philosophy, sociology, psychology, creative arts and more. This requires self discipline that many college age students do not have. It cost much less but means no social life meaning party time. The employer will not know what you have learned but if you start working and do your self education while working you will soon prove your worth. The boss will quickly realize that you are self starter with the self discipline to stay on task. Working and paying your own light bill will cause you to mature into a productive worker faster than spending 4 years going through the motions of learning while spending most of your time wasting time. College for serious students will pay off but too many are there just taking up space. It is estimated that the cost of a liberal arts degree including loan interest and loss of income is over $400,000. The average starting salary for a liberal arts major is $38,000. Starting pay at Amazon is $30,000 per year. If you are not really fired up about getting a formal education you may be better off forgoing college and joining the work force right after high school. It is something to consider.

Student loan debt

When banks got too big they made risky investments knowing that the government would covered their losses if investments went south. This is called a moral hazard. The same thing was part of the plan when certain states like California and Illinois ran up their pension debt feeling that before the state went broke the feds would come in and save the day. Some feel that student debt followed the same pattern with those in debt believing that the feds would help them. If the federal government does step in, will this encourage others to take on debt they cannot repay, things such as home mortgages or even car loans and credit card debt. Currently there is $1.6 trillion in student loan debt and $1 trillion in credit card debt. Should the government pay off this debt? What would be the justification of paying off one kind of debt and not others?

Green energy

A case can be made showing that most people are only interested in climate change as it relates to politics. Scientist will point out that there currently is no practical replacement for fossil fuel yet this is routinely presented as a possibility. These same people are opposed to nuclear plants. They never mention using natural gas for transportation. The never bring up the problems with mining rare earth metals. They don't discuss the wait time to charge up a car battery. They have no answer to the problem of what to do with air travel and heavy equipment like bulldozes, semis, tractors and so on. They oppose fracking without a replacement and without explaining how the world will keep going without fossil fuel. On an individual basis they live in large homes on large lots that require more energy for heating and cooling. The lawn needs watering, fertilizer, herbicides and pesticides. Many of these same people have a second home with all the same requirements. They drive SUV's and commute miles to work each day so they can live in their large homes in the burbs. They have garages or storage sheds filled with lawn care equipment like mowers, edgers, trimmers, leaf blowers and snow blowers all of which require more fossil fuels along with recreational vehicles like four wheelers, motor bikes, snow mobiles and boats. For some the recycling of there used soup cans shows they care. The main groups that promote climate change are those who earn a living writing about it and those who manufacture solar and wind equipment. All those who truly understand the problems associated with climate change will act on what is written above. Here is one statistic. There are 55 million acres of irrigated farm land an 40 million acres of lawn.

Wall Street

Biden, following the advice of Senator Warren, is getting tough on Wall Street. He is putting Gary Gensler in charge of the financial transfer and Gensler is an outspoken critic of the big banks. During the campaign Biden promised to raise taxes and increase regulations on corporations. This seems to conflict with campaign finances donations since Biden collected $800 billion to Trumps $500 but more to the point Wall Street contributions to Biden were $75 billion vs Trumps $15 billion. It must not be true that money buys influence. They may have gone to Biden putting the country ahead of profit. This truly is a new day.

Asian American

Mexico has deployed their troops on their southern border and the results are positive. The U.S. apprehended 47,243 migrants from Guatemala, down from 264,168 the year before; 40,091 from Honduras, down from 253,795; and 16,484 from El Salvador, down from 89,811. As a result most of the people now coming across the US southern border illegally are Mexicans. As more illegals are stopped this allows room for more legal immigrants. The legal immigrants are coming from Asian where they are better educated and badly needed by the high tech industry. Asian Americans are the fastest growing voter group and their numbers doubled between 2000 and 2020.

Asian immigrants

There is something about our education system that points people away from careers in science and engineering. The only other explanation is that the Americans are not talented or not interested in those areas. Only one in six of high school seniors is proficient in math. China and India have twice as many STEM(science, technology, engineering and math) grads as the US. Countries like Canada and Australia recognize this and set their immigration programs based on merit. This has been happening without a special law to promote it since the top two countries where immigrants come from are China and India. These people come with tech skills that are needed here and thus they find good jobs where they can support themselves. Once here they promote the value of education and their children are the best performing students. In addition more are proficient in English than immigrants from Mexico and Central America. In both China and India English is taught from a young age. It is not racist to promote these better educated immigrants since they are all brown skin people.

1968

There is a tendency to believe the times we live in are extraordinary and that seems to be the case with 2020. Many people are too young remember 1968. The year was filled with antiwar protest in 150 major cities culminating in the killing of four Kent State students by the National Guard. The democratic convention in Chicago was a picture of mob violence inside and outside of the center. I recall watching Walter Cronkite go apoplectic when his young protege Dan Rather get gut punched by a police officer. The crowds outside were being clubbed by Mayor Daley's troops and the party was torn in half with some siding with the Pro war forces of Johnson and others the anti war McCarthy forces. Later Robert Kennedy came in on a white horse to rescue the party and he was assassinated. It was the year that MLK was assassinated and this led to race rioting as they joined in with the anti war folks. The republican party was split between the old guard Rockefeller's and the formerly disgraced Nixon who arose from the dead like the phoenix. The war put much more stress on everyone than this years election but that was long ago and far away.

Assembly

Freedom of assembly is part of the first amendment and allows citizens to express their opposition to government policy. When these gatherings are peaceful they show the strength of the constitution. There are certain groups who take advantage of this freedom to disrupt and try to cause trouble. The strategy is to provoke the police into attacking the protesters. In general these people are upset with the way they see the country. If you concentrate on the failures of the US you can find plenty. If you concentrate on the good you will have a different view. For some the way to make changes is through revolution as happened in 1776 while for others the ballot box is the way. Each person must choose their way to improve the country.

Fossil fuel

Don't let the perfect be the enemy of the good is an old adage and applicable today in regards to climate change. The road to lowering CO2 passes through several stages in several different ways. First continue to replace coal fired power plants with natural gas. As natural gas plants get old replace them with nuke plants. Build wind mills and solar panels next to existing natural gas power plants using the gas as backup. Install solar and wind for homes using existing heating sources as backup. Start moving cars and small trucks over to natural gas. Continue to increase exports of natural gas to help other countries move away from coal. Start exporting natural gas vehicles to change the world to natural gas. Start building nuke plants today to cover tomorrows needs. These things are not being done because political concerns have deemed it necessary to move directly from fossil fuels to wind and solar. While electric cars and small trucks will continue to be sold they will not replace existing cars until the battery charging time is reduced. No scientist has said we can have air transportation without fossil fuel. Hydrogen is an options but currently to costly to produce. The same can be said for heavy construction equipment, large farm tractors, rail locomotives, semi trucks and large ships. While waiting for the perfect answer let's keep moving toward perfect. All of these things could have been started 30 years ago like the change over in power plants. Why weren't they? Politics.

401K and debt

Polls show that many people are are willing to accept higher taxes to pay for programs like green energy and free college. Some are willing to take assets from rich people in the form of a wealth tax. Both of these groups assume that none of their money or assets will be taken. The assumption is that some rich person will pay for this but there are other ways. For example, the current national debt is $27 trillion and there is about $29 trillion in 401K plans. The government could confiscate these funds and pay off the debt. That sort of puts a different light on the situation but it would be an egalitarian thing to do since the rich have the most in these accounts.

Rare earths in the US

Many experts say the Paris Agreement is necessary to save the planet. Here is a quote from environmentalist Nafeez Ahmed To meet greenhouse gas emission reduction targets under the Paris Agreement, renewable energy production has to scale up fast. This means that global production of several rare earth minerals used in solar panels and wind turbines—especially neodymium, terbium, indium, dysprosium, and praseodymium—must grow twelvefold by 2050. China is the world's dominant producer of rare earth elements with more than 95% of production. China has threatened to cut exports. Chinese state media have backed the idea saying America’s dependence on Chinese rare earths “an ace in Beijing’s hand.” The US has these metals. According to mining experts, Bear Lodge in Wyoming is home to one of the richest and highest-grade rare earth deposits in the U.S., with an estimated 18 million tons of rare earth inside. The US currently uses 13,000 tons per year so this would be a 1000 year supply.

Nuke power

Back in 1997 President Clinton wanted to be a signatory to the Kyoto Climate Treaty but congress was opposed and the senate voted 95 to 0 against the idea. Treaties require senate approval. In 2016 President Obama signed the Paris Climate agreement using executive action since it was not a treaty. The US is one of the few countries that has reduced CO2 emissions. The biggest polluters China and India have continued to increase emissions. There are steps the US can take to make progress. The best way for electric vehicles to reduce CO2 is to use power from nuke plants. There are 95 nuke reactors in the US with two coming on line this year. The first was built in 1958 and new plants with new technology should be built on a regular basis replacing older plants with old technology. In 1979 an accident at the 3 Mile Island plant allowed radio active steam to escape and people had to be evacuated. No injuries or adverse health effects resulted. Understanding the benefit/risk ratios must be considered and the building of new plants seems a safe way to go since it will allow electric vehicles to operate without increasing CO2 levels. New plants produce low quantities of waste and this is properly stored. The next way to get power for electric cars without increasing CO2 is using wind and solar. Here the trade off is clean air for the US and dirty water for China since the mining of rare earth metals is poisoning the Yellow River in China. The down side to both of these is the time it takes to charge up the batteries. A third way is to use natural gas for transportation. This produces CO2 but at lower rates than gasoline and does not emit heavy metals and acid rain. The US has reduced CO2 levels by moving from coal to natural gas in power plants and the same can be done using natural gas for transportation.

401K and debt

Polls show that many people are are willing to accept higher taxes to pay for programs like green energy and free college. Some are willing to take assets from rich people in the form of a wealth tax. Both of these groups assume that none of their money or assets will be taken. The assumption is that some rich person will pay for this but there are other ways. For example, the current national debt is $27 trillion and there is about $29 trillion in 401K plans. The government could confiscate these funds and pay off the debt. That sort of puts a different light on the situation but it would be an egalitarian thing to do since the rich have the most in these accounts.

Republican senate

The race for the senate is close with the deciding votes in Georgia. Biden would be best served if the republicans hold the senate. If the democrats have the majority in the house, senate and White House the left leaning folks will demand their agenda. Their argument will be first off get rid of the filibuster. After that they will have the votes needed to legalize all illegals, replace fossil fuels with the green new deal, raise taxes, install a wealth tax, allow unfettered immigration, offer free college, give government jobs to all who want them, restrict gun ownership, pact the court and so on. Bernie and friends will demand action. Biden is more of a centrist and would prefer to stay away from the extremes. With a republican senate he has an out.

Equality

There is a cadre, sometimes referred to as eastern liberal elites who have gathered under their wing a group of people who consider themselves as victims. This group includes minorities of all kinds. In many cases they are heavily dependent on public assistance. The goal of the elite is to achieve equal results and be rewarded with votes. It has been going on since the 60's and it getting stronger by the year. The lure of benefits is powerful for all groups but more so for those who feel the greatest need. This potential problem was foreseen by Benjamin Franklin when he said, “When the people find that they can vote themselves money that will herald the end of the republic.” This movement will concentrate power into the hands of a few who are seen as benefactors and people will unknowingly trade their individual freedom for benefits. Once a benefit is given, it is almost impossible to take it away and this becomes a one way street. The long term result will be that instead of the average family income being $60,000, every family will earn that amount except for the elite leaders who will earn much more. It will be as Orwell said in Animal Farm, everyone is equal but some are more equal.

Child deaths

Nine high schools in our area are going to 100 percent distance learning. This does not include K to 8 students. These young people will not go home and infect their grandma with the virus like the high school students will do. In addition it tells us that elementary teachers are expendable. This is just one more example of the inconsistencies in how the virus is handled. The emphasis has to be on the elderly. The nursing homes, eldercare facilities, hospital, clinics and all places where older people are found. Only 60 people under the age of 18 have died from the virus and many of those had underlying conditions. There are 75 million people under age 18.

Obamacare today

This is an excerpt from an article I wrote in 2014 and it is even more relevant today. As I talk with people about Obamacare, I get the same questions from different groups and by these questions I can see that there is a lot of misunderstanding and one area that needs addition explanation is deductibles. In researching this I find that 90% of articles talk only about premium cost and it is very difficult to find information on deductibles. I don’t know if that is done out of ignorance or by design but it is a topic that needs more discussion. Here is a report for the coming year. For the 2021 plan year: The out-of-pocket limit for a Marketplace plan can't be more than $8,550 for an individual and $17,100 for a family. For the lowest income groups this can be $2,700 for individuals and $5,400 for families. This does not include the cost of the monthly premium which can be reduced by subsidies. The point is that most people will have to pay out of pocket for most of their healthcare.

Expert

So often the experts say the reason the Dow went down is because the investors dislike uncertainty. Having a presidential election results tied up in controversy can be unsettling but the Dow has gone up 2,000 points since the election. So much for the experts. My favorite definition of expert is a man who knows more and more about less and less until he finally knows everything about nothing.

Amazing Trump

Trump is one amazing individual. For those who have never read Theodore Roosevelt's, "Man In The Arena", now is the time. https://www.artofmanliness.com/articles/manvotional-the-man-in-the-arena-by-theodore-roosevelt/ Trump went up against the democratic party, the establishment bureaucrats, Silicon Valley, Hollywood, Social Media giants, the republican never trumpers, Wall Street, Big Pharma and the national press and just about pulled it off. The press coverage amounted to four years of character assassination with 92% negative stories. Very little was said about his policies and it was mostly about his personality. Many feel that it was the pandemic that made the difference. Trump has changed the politics of the country. The republicans now represent the blue collar working people. Trump increased his share of minority voters over the 2016 election. It appears we will have a Biden Presidency carrying out the Trump agenda. The real loser in this election was the national press. Their decision to pick a side will hurt their credibility for some time.

Election results

If the election results hold up it will be a win for the American people because it represents compromise. The democrats lose a few seats but keep the house, the republicans lose a seat and keep the senate and Biden wins a narrow victory. This means no new taxes, no green deal, no amnesty for illegals, no open borders, no second virus stimulus, no wealth tax, no impeachments, no Medicare for all, no free college, no change in Roe even though abortion disproportionately effects Blacks in a negative way and no riots in the streets. It means bringing home jobs from China especially those regarding medical supplies, a possible infrastructure bill, a press that concentrates on policies instead of ranting about personalities, a stock market that continues a slow but steady rise, a willingness to open the economy, continued energy independence with fracking and free trade with fair or no tariffs. Biden knows that China cannot be trusted and will not sign the TPP. He understands that climate change will fade into the background with a democrat in the White House. He knows that replacing fossil fuels with wind and solar is not possible with current technology so the Paris Agreement makes no sense. In the Middle East he will follow the plan to by-pass Palestine and organize the other Arab countries to work with Israel so there is no need to make an agreement with Iran. The downside is that spending $7 trillion on the virus may trigger inflation which will cause interest rates to rise and servicing the debt may harm economic growth.

Lawyers

Three fourths of the members of congress are lawyers, all in the judicial are lawyers and now it appears that lawyers will decide the election and they fight things out in the court. Everyone should sleep easy tonight knowing that these well educated intellectuals are taking care of us.

Corp taxes

The stock market has always been a mystery to me and this was reinforced by an expert who was on Fox Business this AM. He said the run up yesterday was because the market is expecting a Biden victory. The news people pointed out that Biden plans to bring back the regulations that Trump has canceled and that Biden plans to raise the corporate tax from 21% to 28%.

Independents

With bipartisanship at a high the independents are becoming more determinant. So what do many, if not most of this group, see as important. They like law enforcement, legal immigration, secure borders, strong military, safety net, jobs over public assistance, free speech, less government, low taxes, energy independence, respecting the flag, pro Israel and fair trade policies.

Climate and power

The proponents of climate change are facing a dilemma. They want to get rid of fossil fuels but they have no realistic replacement. To use wind and solar requires the mining of rare earths and environmentalist oppose that unless it is done in China. Meanwhile progress can be made by continuing to improve mileage and moving away from coal in power plants. This has allowed the US to reduce CO2 emission over the past 15 years by more than any other country. The use of natural gas for transportation would continue this downward trend since transportation accounts for 28% of all energy use in the USA. New and improved nuclear power plants could be built. Currently the US gets 20% of its power from nuclear which represents 50% of all carbon free energy. There are two nuke plants set to come on line next year. Solar currently provides 2% of power.

Ego talk

If your desire is to help others learn then carefully dig up the facts on the subject using multiple sources and cross checking and cross referencing and people can be better informed. I you want to discuss behavior use your self as an example and answer the questions posed by St Paul when he said why do I do the things I should not do and do not do the things I should do. We can all learn from that. When facts are presented without proper verification and the behavior of others is discussed that is generally ego talk and lacks credibility.

Colonialism

According to President Obama's book his father fought against British colonialism in Kenya and this had an impact on the presidents views of the world. He was disgusted with the way western countries exploited Africa. Some feel this affected the way he saw the Israeli/Arab conflict. They think he sided with the Palestinians because he saw Israel as a country taking advantage of the weaker state. This did not affect the way Obama saw replacing fossil fuels with wind and solar. He seems unaware that the mining of rare earths in China is causing environmental damage so that western countries can expand their high tech societies. It is colonialism all over again.

News stories

The news often gets the story wrong and that could be accidental bias but sometimes there is deliberate bias by choosing what stories not to run. This AM on Morning Joe they said that Trump bought up the emails on Hunter Biden's laptop and it was not effective because most people who do not watch Fox News know very little about this story. A few months back they said the same thing about the Steel dossier and many feel the same could be said about the deep state. This same phenomenon can be witnessed by looking at the stories of the news websites.

Demetia

Ronald Reagan was 77 years old when he left office and Joe Biden will be 78 when he enters office. Many talking heads suggested that Reagan was suffering from dementia. Here is something from the New York Times. Even before Ronald Reagan became the oldest elected president, his mental state was a political issue. His adversaries often suggested his penchant for contradictory statements, forgetting names and seeming absent-mindedness could be linked to dementia. Multiple journalists have testified to a complicated reality: a slowly diminishing executive who leaned increasingly heavily on advisers, disengaged from day-to-day affairs, and sometimes had difficulty distinguishing fantasy from reality.

Spending

Nancy Pelosi finds herself facing a conundrum filled with irony. A republican president is offering to spend more taxpayers money than she is proposing. Will the states receive money to pay off their unfunded pension debt is the question.

Math club

In the past I have commented on how the ladies are taking over the world. They now represent 60% of college students with more than half in medical school, more than half in law school and more than half in graduate school. The only place the ladies trail is in engineering and that is changing. Today I subbed for a math teacher at Apple Valley High and he is in charge of the math club. On his wall was a picture of the 47 students in the math club and 40 of those were women.

Family friendly

A number of news stories reflect the concern that some have about Thanksgiving Dinner and will it erupt into a family quarrel. The way to avoid this is to discuss policy and not personality. You can tell your pro choice friend that you oppose abortion because you believe that life begins at conception and you see the fetus as a future human being. You do not call him a baby killer. People who would never personally insult a friend seem to lose it when it comes to certain things. You can differ on policies like immigration and taxes but don't say your friend is a cultist. In today's vernacular that is a pejorative meaning they don't have the intellect or wisdom to discern truth. If you stick to issues you can disagree without being disagreeable but when you talk personalities you open the door to insults. If some politicians resort to name calling just take the high road and talk issues.

Build back better

In 2009 Obama told the people in Michigan that the jobs lost would not be coming back. In 2016 he sarcastically said that Trump must have a magic wand to bring back jobs. Then jobs started to return and now Biden says he will bring back jobs with his Build Back Better plan.

Medicaid vs Obamacare

Medicaid is healthcare funded by a joint federal and state program and free for low income people. Medicaid has always covered those with pre-existing conditions. Medicaid did not cover single adults but Obamacare changed that and now in 35 states these people qualify. While they are counted as part of Obamacare they are in fact in Medicaid. Of the 23 million people in Obamacare 15 million have moved into Medicaid leaving 8 million actually covered by Obamacare. Those 15 million are people whose income is below the poverty level, $17,000 for single and $34,000 for family of four have free healthcare. The 8 million covered by Obamacare have incomes above the poverty level and receive partial subsidies. With income greater that 4 times the poverty level the subsidies stop. For a Silver Plan under Obamacare the average monthly cost is $400 and the subsidy would be about 60% of that or $240 leaving a monthly cost to the patient of $160. The problem is the deductible which is about $8,000 for a single and $16,000 for a family in 2020. While many can afford the monthly cost they generally do not use up enough to meet the deductible so they pay most of their medical cost out of pocket.

Pension fund

Our government at work. The republicans propose $1.8 trillion in Covid stimulus and the democrats propose $2.2 trillion and they fiddle while Rome burns. Republicans are concerned that some of the funds will be used to shore up state pension funds. The democrats have set aside $300 billion to help states but say the money will not be used for pensions. The state pension funds are $1.2 trillion in the hole and the state teachers funds are $400 billion in the red so even if they used the whole $300 billion it would still leave some states in trouble. The Illinois fund is one of the worst offenders at $120 billion in debt while the neighboring state of Wisconsin has a fully funded pension. States that have been responsible will receive no pension help but those which have been careless will get help. This happens frequently when government hands out benefits as they often promote equal results.

Epstein and Maxwell

Not too long ago in time but an eternity in the news cycle, Jeff Epstein was the hot item. He took people to his private island for what was reported as sexual adventures. The pilots list of people who went there was a listing of Whose Who in American society. The FBI supposedly gathered date including two computers but all of this has faded into the fog of yesterday. More recently his female companion,Ghislaine Maxwell, was arrested and charged with helping Epstein conduct his rather nefarious business but she has since disappeared from the news. Amazingly enough, most people predicted that nothing much would come from this since those involved are rich and powerful and they are treated differently than most.

Who is racist

The word racist has been used extensively to cast aspersions on people and calling Trump a racist is no exemption. Following the old adage of actions speak louder than words, Trumps record defies the claim of racist. Trump is for immigration based on merit which means the most new immigrants will come from Asia and in particular India where the people are not Caucasian. Trump has a son-in-law and grandchildren who are Jewish. He has cut off funds to the Palestinians and moved the Israeli Embassy to Jerusalem. He has introduced opportunity zones into inner cities to promote and build Black business. He signed the First Step Act which removes the bias against incarcerated Blacks. He signed new legislation that sends $250 million dollars per year to historical Black colleges. Trump set up the Hispanic Prosperity initiative to promote all aspects of Hispanic American lives especially in education. Trump Enterprises have a majority of Hispanic employees. Unemployment in all groups was brought to the lowest levels. The press has ignored all of his actions and concentrated on his words.

2020 new or old

The upcoming election will be determined by one simple fact. In order to understand that go back to the 2016 election. Jerry is a teacher. He is a family man who has been teacher for 20 years. He is one of the lucky few who loves going to work and loves coming home even more. He goes to work in relatively pleasant surrounding, warm in winter and cool in summer. He has a pension, health care, vacation, personal days and sick leave. Each year Jerry watches his pension go up and his mortgage go down. For Jerry, life is good. Steven worked at Bethlehem Steel. He had a good salary, enough so that his wife could work if she chose or be a stay at home mom. Steve had benefits like pension, healthcare and vacation. Out of the blue, the Chinese government began to subsidize their steel industry to the point where they could sell steel on the world market below production cost. In 1982 Bethlehem lost billions and Steve lost his job. Steve went to work at a low paying job and is wife joined him with the both of them not earning as much as Steve did with Bethlehem. They no longer had benefits. Every four years someone running for president would tell Steve that he would soon be helped and the years past and nothing happened. Along comes Trump, loud mouthed, boastful, egotist who is an outsider. He is not a politician and promises to drain the swamp and Steve feels he has nothing to lose and votes for this new comer. Biden, a man who was part of the government all of these years that Steve received empty promises now promises to help Steve. Steve for the first time in 40 years has seen his real wages increase and must decide whether it is safe to go back to the days before Trump or to move ahead. The election will depend on one factor. How many Stevens will come out and vote.

Court changes

Two developments in the political world these past few years are concerning. First the removal of the filibuster on nominations of Supreme Court Justices. This has the result of moving nominees further away from the center and opens the door to packing the court. Second is the free press that is supposed to be the government watch dog has moved toward advocacy. The dislike for Trump has turned personal and policy issues are affected and this too has moved things away from the center. A recent example is how little news was reported about Israel and two Arab countries coming together vs the news regarding a report that Trump paid $700 in taxes.

Virtue signaling

If you listen carefully to most semi-serious conversations and read between the lines you will hear people say, why can't you be more like me. New words and phases come into the vernacular on a regular basis and one recent addition confirms that people say why can't you be like me and the phase is virtue signaling. For example, a man writes an article decrying racism. In essence he is saying that it is too bad that others are not like him, that he is virtuous and can point out the error of the ways of others. You can substitute most any word for racism and get the idea.

Green deal jobs

The push to replace fossil fuels with wind and solar faces two big obstacles. First is what to do when the sun goes down and the wind stops blowing and the second is transportation in areas like trains and planes. The solution is to use hydrogen for fuel to supplement the wind and solar. This requires the production of enough solar panels to both run the power plants and run transportation. A conservative estimate is that this will require 8 billion solar panels and the US currently has 1.5 million. Under current law these panels would have to be made in China so the expected jobs will not be there. They are made in China because they require certain metals like neodymium, terbium, indium, dysprosium and praseodymium. Mining of these metals is an extreme environmental hazard and China is willing to contaminate their ground water to produce these and the US is not. The claim that the new green deal will provide jobs to produce panels and wind mills is not likely unless the US is willing to mine those metals here. The situation is so bad in China that the mines are about to contaminate the Yellow River, a major source of drinking water. Processing rare earths is a dirty business. Their ore is often laced with radioactive materials such as thorium, and separating the wheat from the chaff requires huge amounts of carcinogenic toxins – sulphates, ammonia and hydrochloric acid.

If Joe wins

If Biden wins the election there will be a collective sigh of relief across much of the country. The four year reign of Trump will disappear like a bad dream and things will return to the good old days where the bureaucrats and big business will once again be in control as the lobbyist reallocate resources from business to government. The press will welcome them back with open arms heaping praise on their every move, while Hollywood celebs and Silicon Valley will sing happy days are here again. Meanwhile the low to middle income workers will resume their slow downhill slide as manufacturing jobs move overseas where companies can increase profits on the backs of low paid foreign workers.

Trump plans

If the election were held today, I would vote for Trump and here is why. Placing import taxes on China like they tax our exports Bring jobs home from China especially medical supplies Placing import taxes on Europe until the lower tax on our products Emphasizing job creation instead of public assistance Placing equal opportunity ahead of equal results Supporting the new NAFTA policy with Mexico and Canada Staying out of the Paris Accords Staying out of the TPP Keeping financial pressure in Iran Moving the embassy to Jerusalem Agreement between Arab countries and Israel Keep fracking as it lowers utility cost along with gasoline cost Fracking has made the US energy independent and allows for exports of oil and gas Keep the Trump tax cuts Reduce regulations Regulate border crossings Promote legal immigration based on merit Strong military Back police with proper funding Opportunity zones in the cities to help black business Increased funding for black colleges Continuing criminal justice reform Allowing Vets to go to public hospitals Getting NATO countries and UN countries to pay their fair share Bringing troops home from around the world

Name

With the demise of Uncle Ben's rice and Aunt Jemima syrup many think that this sort of political correctness is a new thing but not so. In the 1960's Pillsbury came up with a Cool Aid kind of drink using an artificial sweetener. Two flavors were forced to change the name. The first was Chinese Cherry and the second was Injun Orange.

Freedom

Over time liberals became progressives but it was more than a word change, it was a change in philosophy. Liberalism used to be the back bone of the First Amendment but that has changed. Instead of free speech they opposed certain speakers on campus, certain words are no longer acceptable and these words are used to ban books, books like Huckleberry Finn and To Kill a Mockingbird. They oppose talk radio and Fox News. Freedom to assemble is under attack when Trump rallies are wrong but protest are OK. Freedom of the press is threatened by replacing news reporting with advocacy. Freedom of religion is challenging tax exempt status of those who oppose abortion, by boycotting business that promote pro life or who oppose gay marriage and closing churches during the pandemic while allowing other businesses to open. In the past the ACLU would fight against such ideas but today they are aligned with the press.

Virus planning

In the 2017/2017 flu season 186 children died from the flu. So far 121 children have died from Covid. There are 66 million people under age 21. The schools are in total disarray. How did the schools get to this point. There was no panic in 2018. Kids went to school and some got sick. Every year in the US 10,000 children under age 15 die from illness. Every year 12,000 children under age 19 die from unintentional injuries. The emphasis on flu protection should be on those over age 60. The young people are being punished because the old people are dying. More planning is needed for future epidemics with the emphasis on the elderly and those with underlying health conditions.

Russian info

This week Director of National Intelligence John Ratcliffe, a Trump appointee. released information from Russian sources that Hilary Clinton started the Trump/Russia investigation to distract from her lost emails. This information was given to the FBI but was not investigated. This was in July of 2016 before the election. At the same time the Steel dossier, which was from Russian sources, claiming that Trump colluded with Russia was thoroughly investigate for more than two years. Conservatives are asking why these two Russian revelations were handled differently.

Covid response

On January 1st 175,000 people left Wuhan and air travel to other Chinese cities was restricted but not travel around the world. The first case of Covid hit the US on January 20th and on January 29th the White House task force on Covid was started. Two days later all air travel from China was restricted. It was then discovered that the personal protection equipment(PPE) supply was is short supply. There was supposed to be an emergency supply but it was depleted from past flu epidemics and not replaced. In addition over the years more and more of this equipment was made in China and they had hoarded the supply in anticipation of the problem while they maintained that the Covid was not spread from human to human. The government then got US companies to begin making PPE. Over the next few months congress approved $6 trillion dollars to offset the economic and health effects of Covid. During this time a number of US companies began the search for a vaccine and for other prophylactic medicines. Meanwhile in mid April the economy was closed except for front line workers, truckers and food stores. The CDC estimated that if the US did not take action that 1.6 to 2.1 million people would die. By September 200,000 had died and Biden said on September 17th that if Trump had done his job no American would have died from this virus. The major failure in the government response was that no one including medical experts stressed the importance of protecting the elderly. In all past flu epidemics it was the elderly that got hurt the most so this should not have been a surprise to anyone. It was so lost in the weeds that in NYC infected people were being sent to nursing homes even though there was a hospital ship sitting empty waiting for Covid patients.

Church

The Holy Roman Church was the only christian church for over 1,000 years when in 1054 the Eastern Orthodox Branch split off. Then 500 years later the Church of England broke away. Then followed a series of protestant groups and today there are 200 different christian denominations in the US. The latest was projected to be a split in the Catholic Church with some being catholic and some being really really really catholic. This was the tough in cheek suggestion by a late night comedian but in today's world who can tell. Will the church divide over the abortion issue. Many protestant churches are now pro-choice.

Fear

In FDR's First Inarguable Address he uttered the now famous words, This great Nation will endure as it has endured, will revive and will prosper. So, first of all, let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is fear itself--nameless, unreasoning, unjustified terror which paralyzes needed efforts to convert retreat into advance. There followed 8 years of the worst depression in the country's history. Was Trumps positive attitude one of naivety or was he trying as FDR did to reassure people that the country will get through this. Would it have been wise for either man to say that things were going to get real bad. Could the fact that they appeared optimistic mean that they were not being truthful?

Job loss

China's GDP per capita was less than $300 per year for thousands of years. In 1945 communist under Mao took control and over the next forty years this rose to $1,000 per person. In 1978 the government opened the economy to the free market and GDP per person increased to $3,600 by 2000. In 2001 China joined the WTO and the GDP increased to $8,000 by 2010. In the last 20 years the US has lost 100,000 manufacturing plants and 5 million manufacturing job to overseas countries primarily China. These were the good jobs that the middle income blue collar workers enjoyed and watched big government and big business join hands to send these jobs away. In 1993 the US signed the NAFTA agreement and this resulted in further loss of manufacturing jobs. Remember when Ross Perot said that giant sucking sound you hear is jobs going to Mexico so people knew what would happen. Moreover, data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reveal that nearly 4.5 million U.S. manufacturing jobs have been lost overall since NAFTA took effect. NAFTA has now been replaced with something more fair and this job loss should stop. Bringing back jobs from China is now a promise by both presidential candidates.